Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Turn, Turn, Turn

I awake in trepidation. Paul Krugman's devastating critique of the Geithner plan to carve away the rot from the uncured ham has had its effect. Here's a pretty smart guy, and a card-carrying nemesis of the Republican nay-sayers, declaring it won't work.

Beacoup bucks were created for my portfolio yesterday by the market's decision that stocks should be valued higher, but I would argue that it had less to do with the Treasury's scheme for cleaning up the oil spill than news that existing home sales surged. By hook or crook, the oil will be skimmed from the shore, though many a seal may perish. But animal spirits are reviving. We mourn the victims but reproduce nonetheless.

Ecclesiastes tells us that to everything there is a season, a time for love, a time for hate. As far as Miss Market is concerned, it is time for the former. It will be a messy affair, replete with break-ups and make-ups, but the time to hate will come soon enough, when inflation soars and the fall in purchasing power inflicts its damage on folks like me in the middle.

Put your unemployment insurance check in the market today. Still bullish on commodities (oil, silver) and tech names (PALM, AMD) and one manufacturing name (F). Caveat: I also pick OU to win in Detroit.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

As concerns your prognostications,and to paraphrase Meatloaf, "...four out of five ain't bad..."

Kevin A. Donovan said...

Prediction: Gonzaga will beat the Tar Heels only to be steamrolled by the Sooner Schooner

Anonymous said...

I was thinin, just in a macro- economic sense, shouldn't worker productivity (I forget what the tech term is when it is announced...maybe just that) be skyrocketing as people are doing the jobs of 3 people and are also afraid of being let go?

Kevin A. Donovan said...

yep. i think it was up in the latest release. it's supposed to be the wellspring of wealth. the conundrum is that over the last decade or more productivity has risen but the disparity between the wealthy and us has increased.