Divine Comedy

If Dante were writing today, he would tack a sign up at the intersection of Broad and Wall that says: Abandon hope, all ye who enter here.

But then, Dante has long gone to paradise to be united with Beatrice and doesn't need a Virgil to lead him around the circles of hell. We have our own Virgils these days -- economic indicators like retail sales data due out this week and all the asleep-at-the-wheel wise men (Greenspan, et al.) who thought that greed and corruption could be held in check by the self interest of the self-interested.

"Over here in this circle," they tell us, "is a long-dead pope and Bernie Madoff. In that one is a master of the universe who pocketed beaucoup dough and is still nodding to Rush Limbaugh's nonsense while the rest of us shop at Wal-Mart. "

Still, fiscal and monetary stimuli in the pipeline insure that animal spirits will revive before inflation kicks in (that's another story). Look to the horizon. The sooner Obama takes up the cudgel, resumes smoking and laughs at Republican obstructionism, the sooner final sales will revive. It will occur in the second half of 2009.

I was convinced the market bottom came in November. Or as the analysts and strategists on the sell side say when they're trying to save their jobs, I was right but my timing was off!

In any event, if Obama can get the the bank thing behind us (easier said than done, given the global repercussions of nationalization and interlocking debt arrangments that have made us all hostage), then the stimulus should do its work. My landlord and I are depending on it. In fact, got to cut a check to the guy now.