Gross domestic product plummeted at a stunning 6.1% annual rate in the first quarter, the government tells us. Throw a tea party, not the one with bags from Ceylonese plantations tossed into Boston harbor, but the one on a sunlit yawn with crumpets and lots of jam. Wear ascots.
The story is in the mix – the cleansing decline in inventories and the rise in consumer spending is making our party. The train is leaving the station. Sure, there will be more tales of financial malfeasance and outbreaks of torch and pitchfork curmudgeons at various stops when we take on more coal and water and let Gary Cooper off to duel at high noon, but the path of least resistance has been paved. The choo-choo, fired by fiscal and monetary stimulus, is staying on the rails. The 2009 second-half recovery is playing out.
All that said, the inflationary world where savings evaporate and borrowing booms will meet us down the track. Great Depression II has turned into garden variety recession. Take what God has given us, which are cycles. Stock prices recover ahead of GDP.
In the event, though, things go awry. My Redbirds’ ace Lohse did his job last night with six scoreless innings, but the Cards lost 2-1 to the Braves. Nevertheless, I’m laying another dime on St. Louis and the stock market, even though the Steinbrenners are cutting ticket prices, a good sign because they are behind the curve. Prediction: Phil Hughes remains in the bigs and Joba is back in the bullpen.
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