It Springs Eternal

Hope is the thing with feathers. Emily Dickinson probably never thought that the bird trilling in her soul and never asking "a crumb" in return was singing about Miss Market or the Super Bowl.

The Republicans, apparently denying that feathers mean anything, are disingenuous churls. Where were John Boehner and his fellows when they cut taxes and increased spending as the economy was growing. When the Fed should have recognized a bubble and contained it, policy makers allowed the balloon to expand until it burst upon us. Can leaning against the wind be that hard?

In this great recession, dough must be thrown willy-nilly. Of course there will be waste, pork, corruption. The retail industry calls it shrinkage. It accepts the fact that shoplifting, damaged goods and employee theft will take a toll on margins. But it doesn't stop Target, The Gap, Key Food or the local sneaker store from forging ahead.

I imagine Dickinson's bird (a common sparrow, I think) in the throat of sultry Miss Market (Julie London singing "Fly me to the Moon"). Those inclined to take profits on the meteoric rise of PALM will be forgiven. I'm hanging on, though. The new phone will compete vigorously against RIMM's Blackberry, and the comeback from today's lows was impressive. Stalwarts GE and MSFT have done all right. My flyer with NYT is even. Oil took a tumble today, but I'm still hanging in with DXO.

As for the upcoming football game, I'm inclined to think the Cardinals will cover the seven-point spread if Edgerrin James can average five yards a carry. Otherwise, the Steelers' intricate pass rushing schemes could derail the Kurt Warner story. Nevertheless, that thing with feathers flutters.

But all this is about the short term, which I define as the time I'm alive. In the long run, my optimism is diminished.

Arnold Toynbee's magisterial "A Study of History" covered the inevitable decline of all civilizations more than 60 years ago. Henry Adams and Brooks Adams sought a scientific explanation for history 100 years ago. Spengler did it, too, in a more impenetrable way (I defy anyone to explain "The Decline of the West" to me).

These historians were not crazies. The sky has always been falling. Great civilizations totter from within. Rising powers just push them over, only to be felled themselves when the time has come.

For my part, I'll take the medieval world of faith and mystery with indoor plumbing, a vaccine against bubonic plague and mid-60s British invasion bands. Guess I'm caught in a time warp.