It is convenient to divide the world into two camps. I do it often as a way to explain success, failure or just the amount of enthusiasm one has for getting up in the morning and facing Miss Market (I prefer to think of it as a she, not Mr. Market, for some vaguely sexist reason, I'm sure). But Mr. Madoff is off the charts. How he kept all those balls in the air for so long without Miss Market walking out on him will likely be studied by psychologists and fledgling con men for years to come.
I've tried my two-camps trick, as in "the world is divided between the suckers and the wise guys," or, "the world is divided between those who play by the rules and those who move their tee shot from behind a tree when no one is looking." But this guy separates himself. Your run-of-the-mill swindler fleeces and flees. Mr. Madoff stuck around, with a public profile as big as the Ritz, apparently never believing everybody would ask for their money at once.
Perhaps the lesson for investors is that you can't have it one way all the time. Take your best shot, and if you lose (hopefully fewer times than you win) chalk it up to fickle Miss Market and soldier on. If a money manager appears to be saying his trees grow to the sky year after year, take a look at the rest of the forest. Like picking football games against the spread, if you're right 60% of the time you're a genius, 100% of the time and the fix is in.
By the way, played at Dyker today. Putted well, tee shots were inconsistent, approach shots were atrocious. Oh well, the worst day on the golf course is better than.....Sadly, it looks like the last golf day for a time. Instead, I am devoting myself to analyzing the BCS championship game and trying to come up with a way for OU to score 60 points against Florida. I think that's what it's going to take.
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