Real Tough Guys

Spare us the oohing and aahing over the “severity” of the sanctions against Pennsylvania State University football in the wake of an investigation that found the sainted Joe Paterno guilty of covering up for a child rapist.  If we were Southern Methodist University, we would secede from the National Collegiate Athletic Association, hire a lawyer and sue for the revenue it lost when its football program was kicked to the curb.

All SMU got from the NCAA was the death penalty in the early 1980s for the good old-fashioned all-American way of gaining an edge  –  paying its scholars to block and tackle.  But Penn State?  It still gets to play, pack its stadium with 100,000-plus fans for each home game this season, and still be on television.  Great.  If you’re so inclined you’ll be able to watch and listen to the blow-dried bloviators speak of the indomitable Penn State community and the “healing” virtues of intercollegiate competition.

This is what passes for disapproval.  Oh well.  We’ll get over it, though we won’t be as big a college football fan as we used to be.  We’re free of that now.  Of course, Western Civilization will fall if Oklahoma falls to Texas this October, but we can take it.

What we can’t take is the sense that the NCAA is somehow trampling out the vintage where the grapes of wrath are stored.  Self-righteous to a fault, the NCAA proved to be as gutless as the Penn State administration and its hypocritical head coach.  We don’t have the numbers, but $60 million is probably what parking tickets are to Federal Express   –   just the cost of doing business

No, the NCAA flubbed it.  To sleep at night it chose to tell itself a story, the one about what a tough guy it was for making the Lions cut back on the number of linebacking studs it could stuff into Theory of Volleyball 101.

In our ideal world, every male freshman would receive a flyer (or a text message nowadays) informing him of football tryouts the Saturday before Labor Day, leather helmets would be optional, the coach would be a professor wanting to make some extra dough.

But, alas, it isn’t so and never was.  The men who ran Penn State and its football “program” thought it more important than little boys and sought to protect it rather than them.  By not pulling the plug, so did the NCAA.

Rescue Me

Lumberjacks yelled TIMBERRR!  Golfers bellowed FORE! Markets wailed LEMMEE OUTA HERE!  Yep, last week’s reports from the Institute for Supply Management and the Bureau of Labor Statistics provided scary bookends for the mounting body of evidence the U.S. economy is rolling over.  But are equity prices anticipating rescue?

Though the major stock indices went south Friday, they remain higher than the close on June 1, when the May payrolls report ushered in the specter of recession.  The S&P 500 closed Friday at 1,354.68, down 124 points on the day and off 0.8% for the week, but up 6.0% since June 1. Similarly, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, also down 0.8% on the week, is up 5.4% since June 1.  And the NASDAQ Composite, which managed a gain of 0.1% for the week, is up 6.9% since June 1.  The market’s performance leads us to believe sentiment still clings to the expectation that policy levers will be used to keep the motor running. 

Pessimists sing along with Diana Ross and the Supremes that  “… there ain’t nothin’ I can do about it.”  Fiscal policy is all but sidelined by Washington gridlock in this election year, and some central bankers are dogged by the uneasy sense that more action is futile in an economy caught in a liquidity trap.

But Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has rejected the notion the Fed has no arrows left in its quiver and has pledged the Fed is ready to act if necessary.  The upshot, we believe, is that QE 3 is inevitable.  We think another round of quantitative easing, that is, printing money by purchasing financial assets from commercial banks, will be launched at the Federal Open Market Committee’s next meeting in August.  The minutes from the June FOMC meeting will be parsed when they are released on Wednesday.  The policy makers extended “Operation Twist” at that meeting.

The argument for further Fed action got support last week from news that the ISM’s diffusion index of manufacturing activity in the U.S. slumped into contraction territory for the first time in three years, falling to 49.7% in June from 53.5% in May.  The production and employment sub-indexes were up, but a steep drop in new orders was the canary in the coal mine.

And the notion of an incipient downturn grew stronger with Friday’s news that nonfarm payrolls grew a paltry 80,000 in June, below expectations that were raised when ADP said Thursday that its survey of private sector employment showed a gain of 176,000.  The unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.2%.

Abroad, the misery continued as Eurostat reported the unemployment rate in the 17-nation euro zone rose to a record 11.1% in May from 11% the previous month.  Spain's unemployment rate was the highest in the euro zone at 24.6%, while Austria had the lowest jobless rate at 4.1%.

Next week, the producer price index and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey will be released Friday.  For now, though, it’s up to earnings season to set the tone.

The Week That Was and the One to Come

Oh what a week it was for relationship building.  Chief Justice Roberts and enough Supremes stopped in the name of love from jilting Obamacare, the European Union got less unperfect and Miss Data wasn’t all that into us but friendly enough.  Mr. Market responded to it all with outsized gains on the last trading day of the quarter.

Ahead, of course, is the June jobs report to be released at the end of a four-day work week.  The May report showed a disappointing 69,000 additions to nonfarm payrolls, so the June statistics will be looked at for trend confirmation or reversal and the impact on monetary policy makers.    

But let’s look at what last week told us.

SCOTUS STOCKS

Shares of hospital companies predictably shot higher because the Supreme Court’s 5-4 decision to preserve the Affordable Care Act largely intact means care providers will have more paying customers.  Insurers sagged because the Act imposes restrictions that could hurt profits. 
Despite the predictable Tea Party exasperation, we suspect corporate America was relieved that one cloud of uncertainty was gone.

A MORE PERFECT (EUROPEAN) UNION

The stock market took great pleasure in the outcome of the EU summit in Brussels.  What that outcome will lead to, however, is harder to figure out.  No matter.  Mr. Market has a story and he’s sticking to it – for now. 

As best we can tell, the EU decided to decide about recapitalizing banks and creating a pan Eurozone banking regulator, taking the first step toward a real fiscal union that would issue Eurobonds backed by everybody, including that old killjoy Germany and the prodigal sons of the south.

THE WEEKLY DATA DATE

We think the most worrisome indicators were two releases from Chicago, the city that works, the poet said.

The little noticed Chicago Fed’s national activity index reached the lowest level in a year, dropping to a three-month average of -0.34 in May from -0.13 in April. The one-month index dropped to -0.45 in May from +0.08 in April. The Chicago Fed asserts that below -0.7 on the three-month average indicates a recession has likely begun.

The much more noticed Chicago Purchasing Managers Index stayed in expansion territory at 52.9% in May vs. 52.7% in April.  But here’s what caught our attention:  New orders and order backlogs were a negative and inventories rose.  That’s not a recipe for growth.

Meanwhile, from Washington we learned that personal income increased 0.2% in May, largely on investment gains.  Personal consumption expenditures, however, were flat vs. the prior month.
Paradoxically, the brightest star in the sky continues to be housing, the keystone of sustained expansion.  The Case-Shiller price index rose 1.3% in May.

THE WEEK TO COME

As noted, the big dog will be the June employment report on Friday.  Economists are looking for about a 100,000 gain in payrolls and unchanged unemployment rate of 8.2%.  ADP will preview the Labor Department’s number with the release of its private sector payroll tally on Thursday.

If the jobs numbers come in as weak as May’s, expect talk of another round of quantitative easing by the Fed.  Ben Bernanke said the Fed was ready to act if the economy required it.
Also on tap are the ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index for manufacturing for June and construction spending for May on Monday.  Factory orders for May is out Tuesday.

The U.S. shuts down Wednesday to celebrate its independence.   Happy Fourth.

The Rock Market Decoded

Imperfection being the constant of the human condition, equity valuations are always undershooting or overshooting, kind of like our putting stroke.  This condemns investors to watching our old pal Sisyphus push the rock uphill only to see it roll down again.  This is what economists, lyrical souls that they are, call “reversion to the mean.”

So, whether pondering the futility of our golf game or the arc of stock prices, one asks: “Where is that damn rock headed?”

To answer this, we are faced with another conundrum.  It can be said that equity valuations are predictors of corporate profitability, which, in the aggregate, depends on economic growth.  Those valuations should adjust as evidence accrues one way or the other.  This is what finance professors, ever the blithe spirits, call the “discounted cash flow or dividend discount model.”

But, as Mitt Romney was laughed at for averring, corporations are people.  If they depend on economic growth for wealth creation, they must – like each butcher, baker and candlestick maker who makes up the economy – be doing the growing themselves.

Or, in the words of another presidential candidate, the sage possum Pogo of yesteryear’s funny papers, “We have met the enemy and he is us.”

Which leads us to yet another riddle (Bear with us; fearless predictions will be forthcoming).  If we assume the market never gets it right, our task is to divine in which direction the rock is undershooting or overshooting.  This is what Wall Street wags mean when they say, “Nobody rings a bell at the top.”

We find it our task, then, to stand athwart the midpoint of 2012 and judge the direction of economic growth and its doppelganger, the rock on the hillside.  As always, the evidence is inconclusive, but try we must and, again like Sisyphus and our erratic putting, take pleasure in the effort if not its result.

First, let’s put the concerns of this vale of tears into four buckets in order of significance:

The Old World: Europe is falling into recession.  Greece is a mess.  Spanish unemployment is 24%. The break-up of the Eurozone appears imminent.

The New World: U.S. real GDP growth slowed to a 1.9% annual rate in the first quarter.  Jobs growth has plummeted from 200,000-plus per month in the winter to just 69,000 in May.  The “fiscal cliff” of 2013 looms.

The Orient: China’s gallop has slowed to what for it is a trot, with GDP growth at “just” 8% or so.

The Golf Course: Can we build a repeatable swing?

Next, let’s parse these concerns and spy which way the rock will rotate.

The Old World: Germany, already caving to the growth advocates, will accommodate them further.  The European Central Bank will cooperate.  Italy’s technocratic compromise, though far from the best of all worlds, will be copied.

The New World:  Romney could very well be president and inherit a recovering economy (the very one he is running against, reminiscent of Bill Clinton’s good fortune in 1992).  If Europe can muddle through (see above) expect the rock to signal economic growth.  Whoever is elected, we can’t believe politicians will be so thickheaded as to let sequestration and tax hikes to kick in January 1.

The Orient:  China may be the model for the rest of the policy makers in the civilized world.  With inflation slowing, the authorities have plenty of room to address slumping growth.  The central bank recently cut interest rates for the first time since 2008, and the government is looking to ramp up public investment projects.

The Golf Course:  Head down, eye on the ball, turn in a barrel, all without thinking about it.

Our conclusion:  Buy the dips and take one more club than your ego tells you.  Sisyphus would do no less.

Jobs Market Goes to the Movies

Payrolls grew in April, so what’s to grouse about?  Edward G. Robinson’s reply in Key Largo to Humphrey Bogart’s observation comes to mind.  “Yeah, that’s it! More! That’s right. I want more.”

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 115,000 jobs were created last month, below the 160,000 or so economists were expecting.  Prior months were revised upward, though.  February job growth was pegged at 259,000, up from the previous 240,000 estimate, and March payrolls are now seen as having risen 154,000 vs. the 120,000 gain previously reported.

The average work week was unchanged at 34.5 hours in April. The manufacturing workweek edged up by 0.1 hour to 40.8 hours, and factory overtime rose by 0.1 hour to 3.4 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees was unchanged at 33.8 hours.

In April, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 1 cent to $23.38. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 1.8 percent.  In April, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 3 cents to $19.72.

The unemployment rate dipped slightly to 8.1% from 8.2%, largely because participation in the labor market shrank.

BLS data in all their glory can be found at http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm.

This tepid growth in jobs and stagnation in wages suggests the economy remained aloft in the first month of the second quarter, though its air speed drifted to levels that should cause concern in the cockpit.

Perhaps the warm winter skewed earlier figures abnormally higher and economic growth is settling back to a more realistic level.  Perhaps the specter of the unraveling of that great fossil museum known as Europe weighs on international corporations’ animal spirits.  And perhaps the sleeping housing construction sector is a cork still lodged in the champagne bottle.

Whatever the cause, expect sideways action in the stock and bond markets for the foreseeable future.  With most of the impetus from positive first-quarter earnings surprises now spent, international events (particularly elections in France and Greece) could take center stage in the investment melodrama.

For the faint of heart (and our ticker is none too aroused right now), we nominate dividend payers such as AT&T (T) and Philip Morris (MO).  Americans may not be working as much as they would like, but they’re not going to give up cell phones or smoking.  

Keeping Score

We shot a 97 on a par-64 municipal track this week. Like Mark Twain’s assessment of Wagner, It was better than it sounds. Really.

In fact, we cut 10 strokes off that in a later round – the first time we have broken 90 – by somehow eliminating enough three-, four- and, yes, even five-putts. Mirabile dictu! It's true! Drive for show and putt for dough.

Likewise, the U.S. economy's game won't be mistaken for one of Bubba Watson's Homeric drives, but the advance estimate of first-quarter gross domestic product showed that efficient work by the 14^th club in the bag kept e pluribus unum in the hunt.

The Commerce Department reported Thursday that real GDP advanced at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.2% in the first three months of 2012, down from a 3.0% rate in the fourth quarter of 2011. Business investment and inventories were the big subtracting factors. But the big dog, the consumer, overcame those drags. Final consumption charged ahead at a 2.9% rate, adding two points to growth, up from 2.1% in the fourth quarter. It was the biggest contribution to expansion since the final months of 2010.

In all, the data buttressed our view that the U.S. has reached escape velocity and won't veer into a double-dip recession, like Europe appears to be doing. Indeed, the U.S. is once again the hope of the world. The American consumer is crucial to Europe and Asia, lands that depend on America's appetite for goods ranging from German cars to Chinese T-shirts. The increase in consumption should also translate into more investment and inventory building on these shores in the months to come.

The stock market responded, shrugging off the headline number, helped, obviously, by sterling earnings reports from Apple and Ford. Fully 71% of companies comprising the S&P 500 that have so far reported first-quarter results beat analysts' mean estimates, according to Bloomberg News.

Barring unforecastable cataclysms, we expect the rally to continue. The S&P 500 is trading at a trailing 12-months price-to-earnings ratio of about 16, compared with a historical mean of about 15, according to the Wall Street Journal. We expect the “P” to grow as the “E” keeps swelling in a growing economy. As in our historic breaching of the 90 threshold, momentum is serious scorecard medicine.

Apocalypse (Not) Now

Dare we say it? Those “green shoots” (a false spring in 2009) appear to be sprouting again in the United States, while foreign fields remain fallow. We argue that this dichotomy is seed corn for global economic expansion that can be wrecked only by the four horsemen of the Apocalypse – war, famine, pestilence, death, the latter of which comes to all of us in the long run, as Keynes famously said. We cannot reasonably forecast the other three, so we will stipulate, for the sake of our analysis, they will remain sidelined. This premise is, of course, a bit of a stretch given the apocalyptic tenor of the times, but assume it we must if we are to proceed down this primrose path.

Our first stop is the land of e pluribus unum. Times being what they were, Americans took the jobs, some 200,000 of them a month for a while, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But no, from out of nowhere (as that famous economist Howard Cosell used to intone), job growth slipped in March – a late frost that threatened to wither those ephemeral seedlings seen sprouting. Another month of lackluster job growth could prove fatal to the outlook for the American spring, particularly if hourly wages remain stagnant.

We remain sanguine, though. For one, oil prices have yet to choke and they have likely peaked. We don’t expect one of our four horsemen, war with Iran, to ride again for some time, and the latest American Petroleum Institute data show inventories on the rise. What’s more, economic growth, though far from boiling, should maintain escape velocity with the latest trade data forcing economists to up their forecasts for first quarter expansion toward the 3% annual rate that offers enough momentum to prevent a stall.

No, the US is probably OK until January, when across-the-board federal spending cuts are slated to kick in. Far be it from us to forecast political outcomes, but it’s hard to believe there won’t be some dickering to soften the fiscal blow no matter who is President or which party controls Congress.

Surely what matters now lies elsewhere in the world, specifically the European Union (our pestilential horseman) and the People’s Republic of China (saddling the famine entry). The former is the biggest worry. Contagion is … well, contagious. Recall, the US financial mess that spread abroad and so artfully ameliorated by Bernanke and company. Expect further selloffs in US equities if Spain’s bond auction goes poorly this week. The EU’s German-dominated direction is perversely aimed at austerity when only growth can save the day. But we think it’s more or less baked in the cake.

Strangely, alarm bells are ringing over the famine nag, the world apparently scared that an undernourished China signals a dearth of demand in the western world. China recently reported another slowdown in growth, but lost in the story is that this outcome is exactly what the Chinese authorities planned – slower growth to prevent overheating and achieve the elusive soft landing of which central bankers’ dreams are made.

For those as optimistic as we are, buy the S&P 500 on weakness. Specifically, we like Ford (F) and Riverbed Technology (RVBD). The former is confident enough to have begun paying a dividend again. We like the latter’s prospects in wide-area network optimization as global growth maintains momentum.

For the more faint of heart, tried and true makers of products that cater to our vices should withstand economic turmoil. In this vein, we like Altria (MO), purveyor of the iconic American cigarette for which we and a host of others have a weakness.

However, we don’t think the Marlboro man need ride to the rescue. He can remain dismounted along with the horsemen of end time.