One lesson Kev thinks he has finally learned as he approaches the turn to the home stretch is that you can’t tell people how to feel. Least of all Miss Market. Our pouting paramour will not succumb to sunny encouragement, snapping her feral fangs at the hand on her shoulder, laughing maniacally at such bromides as: “Hey, it’s not so bad,” or “Remember all the good times,” or “There’ll be blue birds over the white cliffs of Dover.”
You tell her that Pudge Rodriguez has now crouched behind the plate more times than Carlton Fisk and exhort her to do the same. You tell her that even the graceful, intricate – nay, beautiful – pitching motion of Tim Lincecum must lose a game now and then. To no avail. We must let her edge back to us in her own good time. Not helping her in this direction are the latest economic data.
Wholesale inflation was 0.2% in May. Higher energy prices offset a drop in food prices, according to the government. The core producer price index, which excludes food and energy prices, fell 0.1%. At the retail level, inflation also rose just 0.1% last month.
Industrial production fell 1.1% in May to the lowest level in 11 years and is down 13.4% in the past year, the largest year-over-year decline since 1946. And capacity utilization fell to a record-low 68.3% last month, down from 69%. The Krugmanites have a point. This indicates much slack to be taken up before inflation becomes a problem, a condition much to be wished for.
Inflation and interest rates must rise to convince her she has pricing power again, but the mills of the gods grind slowly. We can’t tell her or anyone else how to feel.
Meanwhile (our fallback transition), stay with PALM. Much chatter about a takeover by industry giants looking for an avenue into the smart phone market. F still has value. Wait for GMGMQ to slip. Hoping NVAX catches fire again.
Wish I had taken the underdog Nationals against the pinstripers last night. Long Islander John Lannan outpitched the suspect Chien-Ming Wang, who nevertheless showed some gumption against the new “first in war, first in peace, last in the American (now National) league” team.
Showing posts with label PALM. Show all posts
Showing posts with label PALM. Show all posts
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
Tell Me You're Coming Back to Me
Is Miss Market a changeling, one of those offspring of elves and fairies that the wee folk exchange for human babies? Why, just the other day we danced merrily through a meadow of green shoots with her. But when the sun arose the next, we found a slain rabbit in our pot when we attempted to make our morning oatmeal. And there she was, tangled hair and pointed ears, hissing like Catwoman in a field of burnt straw.
Suspicions that the economic recovery on the horizon was a mirage were roused by the Empire State survey of manufacturing conducted by the New York Fed. The data showed a decline in May after two months of improvement. Oil prices fell, as did interest rates, the most recent fear of the financial press. These are not indicative of green shoots. Kev is of the opinion that rising commodity prices and higher interest rates should be cheered as a sign of acceleration in the real economy, not brakes on the recovery.
But the familiar arc of expansion and recession that has marked the post-war period has turned unfamiliar. That’s because the model has been revealed as a changeling as well. As the United States turns from consumption to saving, incomes decline as jobs vanish, which reinforces contraction and the great hunkering down. So despite all the reserves the Fed has pumped into the system, banks find fewer viable businesses to loan to. The liquidity trap is not a tender one.
Yet policy makers surely know this. The cleansing power of a collapse in economic activity and the erasure of iconic American enterprises some call for would be so great as to cut serious gashes in the cord that binds a society together. So Bernanke, et al., must keep pushing on the string, hoping that the trauma of change from consumption to saving doesn’t entirely dissolve the rope to which we are hanging by a thread. The effort of government spending and Fed largesse is aimed at supplying a parachute to slow the descent so the pilot can live to fly another day.
For the investor, this means rewiring the brain. Look for things “to begin stop worsening” as the Bank of Japan said was happening in its latest dispatch. Being nimble and not too greedy will be prized attributes. Waiting for GMGMQ, DXO (oil) and SLV (silver) to get cheap again, keeping PALM and F in the portfolio. Plaxico Burress and Michael Vick look as if they will get a second chance in the NFL soon. So shall we. Miss Market will comb her hair, don the cocktail dress and take our arm.
As we heard Jean Arthur say to Cary Grant the other night: “I’m hard to get, Jeff. All you have to do is ask.”
Suspicions that the economic recovery on the horizon was a mirage were roused by the Empire State survey of manufacturing conducted by the New York Fed. The data showed a decline in May after two months of improvement. Oil prices fell, as did interest rates, the most recent fear of the financial press. These are not indicative of green shoots. Kev is of the opinion that rising commodity prices and higher interest rates should be cheered as a sign of acceleration in the real economy, not brakes on the recovery.
But the familiar arc of expansion and recession that has marked the post-war period has turned unfamiliar. That’s because the model has been revealed as a changeling as well. As the United States turns from consumption to saving, incomes decline as jobs vanish, which reinforces contraction and the great hunkering down. So despite all the reserves the Fed has pumped into the system, banks find fewer viable businesses to loan to. The liquidity trap is not a tender one.
Yet policy makers surely know this. The cleansing power of a collapse in economic activity and the erasure of iconic American enterprises some call for would be so great as to cut serious gashes in the cord that binds a society together. So Bernanke, et al., must keep pushing on the string, hoping that the trauma of change from consumption to saving doesn’t entirely dissolve the rope to which we are hanging by a thread. The effort of government spending and Fed largesse is aimed at supplying a parachute to slow the descent so the pilot can live to fly another day.
For the investor, this means rewiring the brain. Look for things “to begin stop worsening” as the Bank of Japan said was happening in its latest dispatch. Being nimble and not too greedy will be prized attributes. Waiting for GMGMQ, DXO (oil) and SLV (silver) to get cheap again, keeping PALM and F in the portfolio. Plaxico Burress and Michael Vick look as if they will get a second chance in the NFL soon. So shall we. Miss Market will comb her hair, don the cocktail dress and take our arm.
As we heard Jean Arthur say to Cary Grant the other night: “I’m hard to get, Jeff. All you have to do is ask.”
Monday, June 8, 2009
Our Little Black Book
Every dog has its day. Hooted at as a malingerer by vengeful packs of yapping pinstriper fans, Carl Pavano pitched nine innings of shut-out ball to lead the Tribe over the Pale Hose last week and enrich Kev. And long spurned by her bitter once-burned suitors, Miss Market continues to tame the bears. Methinks they doth protest too much and will soon be checking their cell phone contacts for her number.
Yet we remain wary, knowing that the coquette has the capacity to lead us on and then pout when she doesn’t get her way. What could cause her to spurn us? Three things: geopolitical/terrorist catastrophe, economic indicators that refuse to validate what Bernanke and others perceive as the incipient recovery and the related discovery that stock prices are ahead of what the economy is promising. Well, I guess that’s two things really.
In any event, what matters in the short run for those with dough at stake is the news flow. Job growth should take a while, but stock prices expect that. Key this week will be Thursday’s release of retail sales data and Friday’s University of Michigan report on consumer sentiment for May. Expectations are that both will point to tentative revival. Also to be monitored is the blitz of U.S. Treasury auctions of notes. The yields necessary to sell them will affect the equity markets as much as the bond markets.
The great deflation-inflation debate is for another day. We’ll get to it eventually, but for now we’re concerned about profits to pay greens fees and Mr. Landlord.
Our darling, PALM, has taken a beating recently, though we’re still significantly in the black. Those wishing to take money off the table would be entirely justified. The Pre phone has been released and the battle with Apple and Research in Motion is joined. News is that Apple is cutting the price of the original iPhone to $99. Let’s get physical.
Brave souls who ventured with Kev into Novavax (NVAX) and GM (ticker is now GMGMQ), have been rewarded. If you bet the ranch on these two you would be considerably better off than if you left Summer Bird out of your trifecta box at Belmont. Both are up more than 30% since purchase May 1 and June 1, respectively. Ford is still a keeper.
But Kev picks losers as well. Sonnanstine pitches a superb game for the Rays tonight at the Yankee Stadium launching pad (NASA should consider blasting space probes to Pluto from home plate), but the homers, like the DJs used to say about the hits on AM radio, just keep on comin.’ I’m swearing off going against the pinstripers at home unless Harmon Killebrew, Hank Aaron, Ralph Kiner and Jimmie Foxx are in the opposing line-up.
Yet we remain wary, knowing that the coquette has the capacity to lead us on and then pout when she doesn’t get her way. What could cause her to spurn us? Three things: geopolitical/terrorist catastrophe, economic indicators that refuse to validate what Bernanke and others perceive as the incipient recovery and the related discovery that stock prices are ahead of what the economy is promising. Well, I guess that’s two things really.
In any event, what matters in the short run for those with dough at stake is the news flow. Job growth should take a while, but stock prices expect that. Key this week will be Thursday’s release of retail sales data and Friday’s University of Michigan report on consumer sentiment for May. Expectations are that both will point to tentative revival. Also to be monitored is the blitz of U.S. Treasury auctions of notes. The yields necessary to sell them will affect the equity markets as much as the bond markets.
The great deflation-inflation debate is for another day. We’ll get to it eventually, but for now we’re concerned about profits to pay greens fees and Mr. Landlord.
Our darling, PALM, has taken a beating recently, though we’re still significantly in the black. Those wishing to take money off the table would be entirely justified. The Pre phone has been released and the battle with Apple and Research in Motion is joined. News is that Apple is cutting the price of the original iPhone to $99. Let’s get physical.
Brave souls who ventured with Kev into Novavax (NVAX) and GM (ticker is now GMGMQ), have been rewarded. If you bet the ranch on these two you would be considerably better off than if you left Summer Bird out of your trifecta box at Belmont. Both are up more than 30% since purchase May 1 and June 1, respectively. Ford is still a keeper.
But Kev picks losers as well. Sonnanstine pitches a superb game for the Rays tonight at the Yankee Stadium launching pad (NASA should consider blasting space probes to Pluto from home plate), but the homers, like the DJs used to say about the hits on AM radio, just keep on comin.’ I’m swearing off going against the pinstripers at home unless Harmon Killebrew, Hank Aaron, Ralph Kiner and Jimmie Foxx are in the opposing line-up.
Thursday, June 4, 2009
We Wax Poetic
Is the world too much with us? Wordsworth’s wonderful line resonates far beyond what the simple Anglo-Saxon words represent. They suggest a certain weariness, a sigh at the realization of the incessant to’ing and fro’ing that life demands. Yet, to and fro we must if we are to find profitable enterprises that will keep us to’ing and fro’ing for yet another day.
The nation’s employers continued to shed jobs at frightening levels, according to the Automatic Data Processing survey, suggesting Friday’s employment data from the United States Department of Labor will yield a number close to the consensus estimate of another 550,000 jobs lost in May. Expect renewed sightings of green shoots if the number comes in lower. A good sign – initial jobless claims were lower in the latest week.
Meanwhile, technicians espy hope in the S&P 500 moving above its 200-day moving average this week, a sign, so they say, that the path of least resistance is higher equity values. Speaking of which, Novavax (NVAX) soared 74% today on news that a study of its flu vaccine had begun under the auspices of the National Institutes of Health. If only Kev had bet the ranch! This could be a big winner or big loser and is not for the faint of heart. PALM continued its climb in anticipation of the Pre smart phone to go on sale Saturday.
But enough of serving mammon.
“The world is too much with us; late and soon,Getting and spending, we lay waste our powers;Little we see in Nature that is ours;…” (William Wordsworth)
Respite was found in the soggy turf of Dyker Beach, where carts were forbidden this morning and Kev and his companions walked 18 invigorating holes. A frisky squirrel investigated our ball on the fairway, and for several seconds Kev was sure the furry rascal would carry it away in expectation of a full day’s meal. Thankfully, he realized it was not edible and scampered as we approached with hybrid club in hand. And though the youthful two of our foursome were natural athletes who inspired heroic efforts on the part of the aging, the latter failed to break 100.
But the putting stroke has improved tremendously. Must have had four lip out after perfect reads today. Offsetting, though, was a nine on the fifteenth hole after reaching the rough just off the fringe in three and expecting to chip on and putt for par. Needless to say, disaster resulted. Can someone have the yips with a wedge?
The nation’s employers continued to shed jobs at frightening levels, according to the Automatic Data Processing survey, suggesting Friday’s employment data from the United States Department of Labor will yield a number close to the consensus estimate of another 550,000 jobs lost in May. Expect renewed sightings of green shoots if the number comes in lower. A good sign – initial jobless claims were lower in the latest week.
Meanwhile, technicians espy hope in the S&P 500 moving above its 200-day moving average this week, a sign, so they say, that the path of least resistance is higher equity values. Speaking of which, Novavax (NVAX) soared 74% today on news that a study of its flu vaccine had begun under the auspices of the National Institutes of Health. If only Kev had bet the ranch! This could be a big winner or big loser and is not for the faint of heart. PALM continued its climb in anticipation of the Pre smart phone to go on sale Saturday.
But enough of serving mammon.
“The world is too much with us; late and soon,Getting and spending, we lay waste our powers;Little we see in Nature that is ours;…” (William Wordsworth)
Respite was found in the soggy turf of Dyker Beach, where carts were forbidden this morning and Kev and his companions walked 18 invigorating holes. A frisky squirrel investigated our ball on the fairway, and for several seconds Kev was sure the furry rascal would carry it away in expectation of a full day’s meal. Thankfully, he realized it was not edible and scampered as we approached with hybrid club in hand. And though the youthful two of our foursome were natural athletes who inspired heroic efforts on the part of the aging, the latter failed to break 100.
But the putting stroke has improved tremendously. Must have had four lip out after perfect reads today. Offsetting, though, was a nine on the fifteenth hole after reaching the rough just off the fringe in three and expecting to chip on and putt for par. Needless to say, disaster resulted. Can someone have the yips with a wedge?
Saturday, May 30, 2009
Return to Normalcy?
In normal times (whatever those were), rising oil prices and interest rates would be a cause for worry. Oh for the early ‘80s when the Hollywood actor became president and there was a USSR trying to tame Afghanistan and Paul Volcker targeted bank reserves!
In these fascinating days, hikes in energy prices and bond yields should be welcome. The not so hidden agenda of the controlling authorities is to inflate away debt and worry about the consequences later. Krugman and others insist that inflation Cassandras are false prophets and that deflation is the enemy. They may well be right, but Kev thinks the Nobelist and his ilk are betting as wrongly as Kev did on baseball this past week.
Though rates dropped after spiking earlier last week, they can only go up this year. If they don’t, then the Obama presidency will be a failure because it will mean the problem that was thrust upon it – restarting economic activity – has not been solved. Fiscal and monetary captains will not turn off the spigots until the prices of goods, services and money go up. Lock in a mortgage now if you have a job.
And jobs data will be key this week. ADP will report corporate layoffs on Wednesday, and the Labor Department will tell us on Friday how many more lined up at the soup kitchen in May. Any negative number below 550,000 will be greeted with cheers in the equity market.
But there are no normal times. They have never existed. What’s good for General Motors is good for the USA? It has taken Kev, because it’s all about him, well into his later years, to realize his expectation that eventually all secrets would be revealed was a mirage. Yet, we still court Miss Market. We can do no less. Finer minds than Kev’s summon her. Be nimble, be quick, and believe in God or not, but take your time on putts.
Still in with PALM, F, AMD, and looking to get back into DXO. Get out of government bonds while the getting is good.
In these fascinating days, hikes in energy prices and bond yields should be welcome. The not so hidden agenda of the controlling authorities is to inflate away debt and worry about the consequences later. Krugman and others insist that inflation Cassandras are false prophets and that deflation is the enemy. They may well be right, but Kev thinks the Nobelist and his ilk are betting as wrongly as Kev did on baseball this past week.
Though rates dropped after spiking earlier last week, they can only go up this year. If they don’t, then the Obama presidency will be a failure because it will mean the problem that was thrust upon it – restarting economic activity – has not been solved. Fiscal and monetary captains will not turn off the spigots until the prices of goods, services and money go up. Lock in a mortgage now if you have a job.
And jobs data will be key this week. ADP will report corporate layoffs on Wednesday, and the Labor Department will tell us on Friday how many more lined up at the soup kitchen in May. Any negative number below 550,000 will be greeted with cheers in the equity market.
But there are no normal times. They have never existed. What’s good for General Motors is good for the USA? It has taken Kev, because it’s all about him, well into his later years, to realize his expectation that eventually all secrets would be revealed was a mirage. Yet, we still court Miss Market. We can do no less. Finer minds than Kev’s summon her. Be nimble, be quick, and believe in God or not, but take your time on putts.
Still in with PALM, F, AMD, and looking to get back into DXO. Get out of government bonds while the getting is good.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Animal House
Economists embrace mathematical models because they offer the illusion of authority. And indeed they are right to stick with the rigor of numbers. Facing facts and manipulating them into an algorithm that predicts the future is the truest avenue open to men and women. We only have our history to draw from. Past encounters and experience inform our decisions, wrong as they may turn out to be.
Kev’s “dog “ theory has taken a beating this week at the old ball game, but Miss Market has been a fierce lioness. She is a hungry mommy, intent on feeding her kittens (or is it cubs?), her mate and herself, enabling Kev to feed his brood and keep Mr. Landlord happy. In short, she is an animal.
In a speech today, the Dallas Fed president, Richard Fisher, patted himself and his colleagues on the back with the remark that monetary policy had succeeded in reigniting “animal spirits” in the strivers and sportsmen who toil in the fields, golf courses and streams of these United States of America. This is what is called going out on a limb. There are many who see only darkness and cave-dwelling ahead.
We may have shot errant arrows at ball clubs that escaped our hunt, but we spy an antelope, or ibex, or some kind of antlered beast brought down by our loving mate for protein-loving investors. Let us feast.
PALM’s Pre phone will be much coveted. After Sprint’s exclusive arrangement expires, Verizon and ATT will pounce to offer this rival to Apple and Research in Motion. PALM is volatile, but wait until Christmas sales take off. Ford is a stalwart. Buy oil (green is good, but dinosaurs died for a reason). We can’t predict the future, but try we must.
Anything can happen. When was the last time both catchers (masks in place) and both managers were thrown out? It happened today in youbetcha Minnesota in a game between the bloody hose and the twinkies.
And by the way, Zambrano was right to protest in his demonstrative way. I’ve done the same thing when blowing a three-foot putt or a second serve. We are animals with spirit after all.
Kev’s “dog “ theory has taken a beating this week at the old ball game, but Miss Market has been a fierce lioness. She is a hungry mommy, intent on feeding her kittens (or is it cubs?), her mate and herself, enabling Kev to feed his brood and keep Mr. Landlord happy. In short, she is an animal.
In a speech today, the Dallas Fed president, Richard Fisher, patted himself and his colleagues on the back with the remark that monetary policy had succeeded in reigniting “animal spirits” in the strivers and sportsmen who toil in the fields, golf courses and streams of these United States of America. This is what is called going out on a limb. There are many who see only darkness and cave-dwelling ahead.
We may have shot errant arrows at ball clubs that escaped our hunt, but we spy an antelope, or ibex, or some kind of antlered beast brought down by our loving mate for protein-loving investors. Let us feast.
PALM’s Pre phone will be much coveted. After Sprint’s exclusive arrangement expires, Verizon and ATT will pounce to offer this rival to Apple and Research in Motion. PALM is volatile, but wait until Christmas sales take off. Ford is a stalwart. Buy oil (green is good, but dinosaurs died for a reason). We can’t predict the future, but try we must.
Anything can happen. When was the last time both catchers (masks in place) and both managers were thrown out? It happened today in youbetcha Minnesota in a game between the bloody hose and the twinkies.
And by the way, Zambrano was right to protest in his demonstrative way. I’ve done the same thing when blowing a three-foot putt or a second serve. We are animals with spirit after all.
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
Tra La It's May...
“…the lusty month of May.
“That lovely month when ev’ryone goes Blissfully astray.”
Apologies to Lerner and Loewe and the gambling public, which includes those who trek to the track known as the stock market.
But Kev insists. Sweatered and blue jeaned this May morning, pondering whether to shave and what the weather will be at 10 o’clock tomorrow when he tees off at the course Babe Ruth used to play, he is remaining buoyant and taking the cue from Camelot’s lovely verse, not the Wall Street chestnut of “Sell in May and go away.”
Not that there’s anything wrong with being a fan of show tunes. I wore out the cast recording on our Silvertone stereo from Sears as a kid.
But let’s not get carried away like Guinevere. Trimmed positions in Ford and PALM this morning to take profits and pay the Little Sisters of the Poor who manage my sporting life, but still holding on. Cringing at my swine flu play, Novavax, which has plummeted since my tout, but still holding on. The faint of heart will be forgiven if they bail. Now they tell me this virus is not that big of a deal! Oink. But a guy who told me to take Dunkirk in the Derby was wrong, too. Whoa, Nellie.
Getting out and getting back in is becoming a problem for the investing (read, gambling) public. Hope you got back into new Yankee Stadium last night when they began the game after nine o’clock, but you should have hung out with the family at the Hard Rock Cafe for a multi-bucks hamburger dinner before heading to the Escalade purchased by selling credit default swaps for AIG.
Into each life a little rain must fall.
Construction spending rose last month. Bernanke is chirping about economic growth later this year, though high unemployment will continue to persist. But it’s clear now to all but the crybabies that the economy will soon start hitting more greens in regulation
Resist at your own peril. Reason and rhyme tell us the corner has been turned. The market for equities will not swoon because the survivalists and conspiracy brothers wish it. Not to be invested is to put down the rifle with all the fish in the barrel.
And, anyway, It’s May, it’s May!
“Those dreary vows that ev'ryone takes, Ev'ryone breaks. Ev'ryone makes divine mistakes. The lusty month of May!”
“That lovely month when ev’ryone goes Blissfully astray.”
Apologies to Lerner and Loewe and the gambling public, which includes those who trek to the track known as the stock market.
But Kev insists. Sweatered and blue jeaned this May morning, pondering whether to shave and what the weather will be at 10 o’clock tomorrow when he tees off at the course Babe Ruth used to play, he is remaining buoyant and taking the cue from Camelot’s lovely verse, not the Wall Street chestnut of “Sell in May and go away.”
Not that there’s anything wrong with being a fan of show tunes. I wore out the cast recording on our Silvertone stereo from Sears as a kid.
But let’s not get carried away like Guinevere. Trimmed positions in Ford and PALM this morning to take profits and pay the Little Sisters of the Poor who manage my sporting life, but still holding on. Cringing at my swine flu play, Novavax, which has plummeted since my tout, but still holding on. The faint of heart will be forgiven if they bail. Now they tell me this virus is not that big of a deal! Oink. But a guy who told me to take Dunkirk in the Derby was wrong, too. Whoa, Nellie.
Getting out and getting back in is becoming a problem for the investing (read, gambling) public. Hope you got back into new Yankee Stadium last night when they began the game after nine o’clock, but you should have hung out with the family at the Hard Rock Cafe for a multi-bucks hamburger dinner before heading to the Escalade purchased by selling credit default swaps for AIG.
Into each life a little rain must fall.
Construction spending rose last month. Bernanke is chirping about economic growth later this year, though high unemployment will continue to persist. But it’s clear now to all but the crybabies that the economy will soon start hitting more greens in regulation
Resist at your own peril. Reason and rhyme tell us the corner has been turned. The market for equities will not swoon because the survivalists and conspiracy brothers wish it. Not to be invested is to put down the rifle with all the fish in the barrel.
And, anyway, It’s May, it’s May!
“Those dreary vows that ev'ryone takes, Ev'ryone breaks. Ev'ryone makes divine mistakes. The lusty month of May!”
Friday, May 1, 2009
Innoculation Nation
Attempting to make money from misery is miserable, positively swinish. But someone’s got to do it. And directing capital to drug makers who aim to profit by alleviating misery makes me feel better, which I could use after my common cold caused me to find every bunker at Dyker Beach yesterday. At least that’s my story for shooting 106 and I’m sticking to it.
How many of us have been able to survive and reproduce, have stellar careers in the arts, sciences, professions and hamburger flipping because of a mold called penicillin?
Now, my stellar career has been more white dwarfish than super nova, so I hesitate to offer ideas to all but the intrepid sailor willing to test his balsa wood Kon-Tiki against the mighty Pacific. But just as I know my next approach shot will hit the green next week, I know there are people brainier than I attacking the H1N1 influenza and they could be right -- saving lives and enriching investors.
Kev (yes, in his megalomaniacal certainty that it’s all about Kev, he is referring to himself in the third person) is adding Novavax (NVAX) to the portfolio at $2.03. This Rockville, Md., company reported encouraging results from its virus-like particle (VLP) vaccine in mice and ferrets dosed with the 1918 Spanish flu virus.
I’m no scientist or lover of rodents, and this is obviously a speculative roll of the dice that only the lonely should play, but I’m buying into it for now.
PALM, F, AMD, DDR remain as well. This is no bear market rally. Obama’s competence becomes more evident every day, and markets are responding.
Don't know much about the NBA, but Bulls-Celtics series is terrific. Derrick Rose sunk me in last year's NCAA championship game. Maybe he'll make up for it in Boston tomorrow like he did last night in Chicago. The Bulls will win outright.
Meanwhile, taking Dunkirk in the Kentucky Derby tomorrow. Hopefully, some horse’s behind (there are a bunch of them) won’t get in his way.
How many of us have been able to survive and reproduce, have stellar careers in the arts, sciences, professions and hamburger flipping because of a mold called penicillin?
Now, my stellar career has been more white dwarfish than super nova, so I hesitate to offer ideas to all but the intrepid sailor willing to test his balsa wood Kon-Tiki against the mighty Pacific. But just as I know my next approach shot will hit the green next week, I know there are people brainier than I attacking the H1N1 influenza and they could be right -- saving lives and enriching investors.
Kev (yes, in his megalomaniacal certainty that it’s all about Kev, he is referring to himself in the third person) is adding Novavax (NVAX) to the portfolio at $2.03. This Rockville, Md., company reported encouraging results from its virus-like particle (VLP) vaccine in mice and ferrets dosed with the 1918 Spanish flu virus.
I’m no scientist or lover of rodents, and this is obviously a speculative roll of the dice that only the lonely should play, but I’m buying into it for now.
PALM, F, AMD, DDR remain as well. This is no bear market rally. Obama’s competence becomes more evident every day, and markets are responding.
Don't know much about the NBA, but Bulls-Celtics series is terrific. Derrick Rose sunk me in last year's NCAA championship game. Maybe he'll make up for it in Boston tomorrow like he did last night in Chicago. The Bulls will win outright.
Meanwhile, taking Dunkirk in the Kentucky Derby tomorrow. Hopefully, some horse’s behind (there are a bunch of them) won’t get in his way.
Monday, April 27, 2009
Miss Piggy
Like Keats listening to the nightingale, “My heart aches and a drowsy numbness pains my sense as though of hemlock I had drunk.” But I am listening to the snorting and oinking of bacon, not the avian cluck of doom in recent years past. The influenza that originated with the porcine staple of subsistence farmers, such as my grandfather, who relented to my mother’s pleas and didn’t slaughter the pig she had raised in the depths of the Depression, has put us in the slop.
Given the panic infecting the markets, I fully expect to see pedestrians with surgical face masks when I venture out for my bacon (make that steak) and eggs this summery, un-flu like morning. But I got a shot back in the Ford administration when the swine flu alarum first sounded. Hope it took.
Miss Market can turn on a dime from seductress to you know what with lipstick. I don’t mean you, Gov. Palin. I look forward to your presidency and admire you for sticking up for everyone challenged by the mess we make of things. Plus you look as good as Obama in a tailored suit.
The day is not over, but I remain cheered. Unlike Keats, whose psyche (to which he wrote another ode) was absorbed with the fleetingness of youth, my gaze is fixed on tomorrow. I remain in the green, thanks to F and SLV. Even the redoubtable PALM refuses to bend. The only virus it fears is the one that could infect its operating system.
The airlines are suffering. NYT is down after Ms. Dowd’s wry farewell address to her profession on Sunday. Oil is dipping, but precious metals could be a refuge.
And Yankees’ fans, your ballyhooed pitching staff is suffering from walking pneumonia. I’m stealing home on them and I’m having a BLT for lunch.
Given the panic infecting the markets, I fully expect to see pedestrians with surgical face masks when I venture out for my bacon (make that steak) and eggs this summery, un-flu like morning. But I got a shot back in the Ford administration when the swine flu alarum first sounded. Hope it took.
Miss Market can turn on a dime from seductress to you know what with lipstick. I don’t mean you, Gov. Palin. I look forward to your presidency and admire you for sticking up for everyone challenged by the mess we make of things. Plus you look as good as Obama in a tailored suit.
The day is not over, but I remain cheered. Unlike Keats, whose psyche (to which he wrote another ode) was absorbed with the fleetingness of youth, my gaze is fixed on tomorrow. I remain in the green, thanks to F and SLV. Even the redoubtable PALM refuses to bend. The only virus it fears is the one that could infect its operating system.
The airlines are suffering. NYT is down after Ms. Dowd’s wry farewell address to her profession on Sunday. Oil is dipping, but precious metals could be a refuge.
And Yankees’ fans, your ballyhooed pitching staff is suffering from walking pneumonia. I’m stealing home on them and I’m having a BLT for lunch.
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
I'm Younger Than That Now
Where do original thoughts come from? Or, rather, where do the words come from that express the sentiment and truth that is inherent in every soul? The feeling that glues us all together and wonders and despairs at our fellows who roam outside of this gentle umbrella to feed on the carcasses of the weak and the sick?
In my dotage, I fear for the future, but am heartened by children, though I tear the decal off the top of my new baseball hat and gently curve the bill, though my blue jeans fit snugly (perhaps a bit too much) just below my belly button, despite my tendency to judge ladies and gentlemen by their inclination toward the designated hitter.
Oh yes, original thoughts. Are there any? Perhaps only scientists possess them. Lawyers rely on case law. Doctors refer to symptoms to diagnose what has been diagnosed in the past. Baseball managers call in the closer when up by a run in the 9th inning. The head coach orders a “prevent defense” in the waning moments of a one-score game. Writers usher in dramatic plot points to their screenplays. These are all things the prudent woman or man does.
How little does art imitate life. Life cares not a whit for the artistic spins we may desire to put on it, which may be why we love art so much. It must be an immense disappointment to the artist that all crumbles in his mighty effort to wring meaning out of this vale of tears. There, I just tried to make a sow’s ear into a silk purse!
But narratives persist. Even those outside of our lovely, late-empire American orbit have a story. The last few days have been filled with milestones. The killings at Columbine High School in Colorado (where an ex-girlfriend went to school), the bombing of the Federal Building in Oklahoma City (across the street from where I spent my journalism apprenticeship), and one good thing, the Oklahoma land rush of 1889, an event that defines the American belief in the future.
OK (no pun intended), I am a prisoner of my past, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now (thanks, Bob Dylan; original thoughts belong to others).
Here's another one that stirs me to look to tomorrow. Fitzgerald, disproving my original conceit that art can't illuminate, wrote in an otherwise undistinguished story called The Swimmers: "France was a land, England was a people, but America, having about it still that quality of the idea, was harder to utter--it was the graves at Shiloh and the tired, drawn, nervous faces of its great men, and the country boys dying in the Argonne for a phrase that was empty before their bodies withered. It was a willingness of the heart."
Which gives me that incurably optimistic outlook peculiar to Americans. Tony La Russa, despite having been found passed out, or something , at the wheel last year, has turned managing my Redbirds into a concerto, befuddling the Jerry Manuels who are reporters’ favorites but rely on folks who won’t slide because they might get hurt. Hey, Jerry, give it up. Put Sheffield in the lineup while he still has some pop.
Miss Market has been too kind to me lately. Goldman Sachs upgraded Ford and it soared. Faith in Palm’s new smart phone has kept it marching higher. Advanced Micro Devices advances and retreats but is still in the green as the semiconductor cycle looks to turn. Stay with them all, but don't confuse art with life.
In my dotage, I fear for the future, but am heartened by children, though I tear the decal off the top of my new baseball hat and gently curve the bill, though my blue jeans fit snugly (perhaps a bit too much) just below my belly button, despite my tendency to judge ladies and gentlemen by their inclination toward the designated hitter.
Oh yes, original thoughts. Are there any? Perhaps only scientists possess them. Lawyers rely on case law. Doctors refer to symptoms to diagnose what has been diagnosed in the past. Baseball managers call in the closer when up by a run in the 9th inning. The head coach orders a “prevent defense” in the waning moments of a one-score game. Writers usher in dramatic plot points to their screenplays. These are all things the prudent woman or man does.
How little does art imitate life. Life cares not a whit for the artistic spins we may desire to put on it, which may be why we love art so much. It must be an immense disappointment to the artist that all crumbles in his mighty effort to wring meaning out of this vale of tears. There, I just tried to make a sow’s ear into a silk purse!
But narratives persist. Even those outside of our lovely, late-empire American orbit have a story. The last few days have been filled with milestones. The killings at Columbine High School in Colorado (where an ex-girlfriend went to school), the bombing of the Federal Building in Oklahoma City (across the street from where I spent my journalism apprenticeship), and one good thing, the Oklahoma land rush of 1889, an event that defines the American belief in the future.
OK (no pun intended), I am a prisoner of my past, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now (thanks, Bob Dylan; original thoughts belong to others).
Here's another one that stirs me to look to tomorrow. Fitzgerald, disproving my original conceit that art can't illuminate, wrote in an otherwise undistinguished story called The Swimmers: "France was a land, England was a people, but America, having about it still that quality of the idea, was harder to utter--it was the graves at Shiloh and the tired, drawn, nervous faces of its great men, and the country boys dying in the Argonne for a phrase that was empty before their bodies withered. It was a willingness of the heart."
Which gives me that incurably optimistic outlook peculiar to Americans. Tony La Russa, despite having been found passed out, or something , at the wheel last year, has turned managing my Redbirds into a concerto, befuddling the Jerry Manuels who are reporters’ favorites but rely on folks who won’t slide because they might get hurt. Hey, Jerry, give it up. Put Sheffield in the lineup while he still has some pop.
Miss Market has been too kind to me lately. Goldman Sachs upgraded Ford and it soared. Faith in Palm’s new smart phone has kept it marching higher. Advanced Micro Devices advances and retreats but is still in the green as the semiconductor cycle looks to turn. Stay with them all, but don't confuse art with life.
Monday, April 20, 2009
Yankee Ingenuity
Is the ball juiced? Is there some mysterious wind current in the new Yankee Stadium that makes warning track power Ruthian? Home runs are on a pace to double the number hit last year in the House that Ruth Built. Word is the Steinbrenners are consulting the engineers who built the new palace to determine what might be going on. Is there some flaw in the façade that allows broken-bat triples and pop-up round-trippers? Or does the old horsehide come from the flank of Secretariat?
Doubtless, many missed Posada’s video-reviewed home run yesterday because they weren’t in their $2,500 seats, preferring instead to spend a day at the ball park munching on raw fish or savoring the filet mignon. I see this as a good sign. “Hey, kids, let’s go to Yankee Stadium and have lunch; we can always see the game on HD, which will show the players watching themselves on HD.”
I say it’s a good sign because it connotes a certain insouciance about the present and the future, a necessary ingredient for playing bogey golf (the best I can hope for at my advanced age), finding love and happiness, enrolling in that yoga class, enjoying the two hardy tulips that managed to bloom this year in my garden. I’m going with daffodils next year. I’m told they are hardy perennials, and I love the way they bow to you.
Times change, but fear and greed persist in all but the rare Mother Theresa among us, waxing and waning with whatever wind blows our way. Is greed, like the baseballs flying out of the Bronx, getting the upper hand now? Talk of "green shoots" is nudging the needle that way, but the survivalists and conspiracy sisters resist it mightily, hoping that the four horsemen of the Apocalypse come galloping to validate all the pork 'n beans they've laid up in the root cellar. My guess is they will be sorely disappointed. The bottom is in sight. The next tea party will be held not to protest the "the govment" (as Huck Finn's Pap complained), but the great inflation sure to come.
Key this week are first-quarter earnings reports and Friday’s release of durable goods orders for March and home sales data. If within expectations, the green shoots should grow a bit.
Though the market is taking a tumble today as I write, PALM and SLV are keeping me afloat. Avoid the usurious bankers. With the Fed Funds rate at zero and 25% on credit card balances, their means of making dough is exposed. The return to Glass-Steagall and “bankers’ hours” is coming. Paul Krugman tells me so.
Doubtless, many missed Posada’s video-reviewed home run yesterday because they weren’t in their $2,500 seats, preferring instead to spend a day at the ball park munching on raw fish or savoring the filet mignon. I see this as a good sign. “Hey, kids, let’s go to Yankee Stadium and have lunch; we can always see the game on HD, which will show the players watching themselves on HD.”
I say it’s a good sign because it connotes a certain insouciance about the present and the future, a necessary ingredient for playing bogey golf (the best I can hope for at my advanced age), finding love and happiness, enrolling in that yoga class, enjoying the two hardy tulips that managed to bloom this year in my garden. I’m going with daffodils next year. I’m told they are hardy perennials, and I love the way they bow to you.
Times change, but fear and greed persist in all but the rare Mother Theresa among us, waxing and waning with whatever wind blows our way. Is greed, like the baseballs flying out of the Bronx, getting the upper hand now? Talk of "green shoots" is nudging the needle that way, but the survivalists and conspiracy sisters resist it mightily, hoping that the four horsemen of the Apocalypse come galloping to validate all the pork 'n beans they've laid up in the root cellar. My guess is they will be sorely disappointed. The bottom is in sight. The next tea party will be held not to protest the "the govment" (as Huck Finn's Pap complained), but the great inflation sure to come.
Key this week are first-quarter earnings reports and Friday’s release of durable goods orders for March and home sales data. If within expectations, the green shoots should grow a bit.
Though the market is taking a tumble today as I write, PALM and SLV are keeping me afloat. Avoid the usurious bankers. With the Fed Funds rate at zero and 25% on credit card balances, their means of making dough is exposed. The return to Glass-Steagall and “bankers’ hours” is coming. Paul Krugman tells me so.
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
Mona Lisa, Mona Lisa, Men Have Named You
There’s no need to fear, Underdog is here.
Hoping to redeem my last place finish in my group’s bracket challenge and 1,009,587th finish over all, I took the Michigan State Spartans and the points against the Tar Heels of North Carolina. It was the equivalent of rejecting momentum investing for the contrarian pick. The outcome is one more reason that Wall Street coined the phrase, “Don’t fight the tape.”
But I still have issues. Why does NC have a ram as a mascot instead of a guy in a black foot suit? And why does Alabama, the Crimson Tide, have an elephant as a mascot emblem instead of a surfer riding a wave, back lit by a blood-red sunset? These and other weighty matters bother me while re-tooling my golf swing to the stack and tilt and licking my handicapping wounds.
I suppose I could google the answers, but I resist. I prefer to ponder these mysteries as Plato or Thomas Aquinas or some other deep thinker of yore would have done, without the benefit of instant access to all sources for all things. I want to have someone whose grandfather told them tell me, a much more satisfying path to knowledge than the digital crutch that makes experts of everyone and every blog a newspaper.
Though my mind is distracted by these imponderables, hail to the sticky footprints of Chapel Hill and the tarred toe of Ty Lawson. This was no bear market rally, which is the debate Miss Market is moderating now. Which team will win? Miss Market is giving us a Mona Lisa smile, impossible to interpret. Come hither or You fool?
F, PALM and AMD have been good to us so far. Taking profits would be forgiven. But I’m sticking with them and avoiding financial names.
One Mona Lisa I think I do know is C.C. Sabathia. If he would put his hat on straight, he might get someone out.
Hoping to redeem my last place finish in my group’s bracket challenge and 1,009,587th finish over all, I took the Michigan State Spartans and the points against the Tar Heels of North Carolina. It was the equivalent of rejecting momentum investing for the contrarian pick. The outcome is one more reason that Wall Street coined the phrase, “Don’t fight the tape.”
But I still have issues. Why does NC have a ram as a mascot instead of a guy in a black foot suit? And why does Alabama, the Crimson Tide, have an elephant as a mascot emblem instead of a surfer riding a wave, back lit by a blood-red sunset? These and other weighty matters bother me while re-tooling my golf swing to the stack and tilt and licking my handicapping wounds.
I suppose I could google the answers, but I resist. I prefer to ponder these mysteries as Plato or Thomas Aquinas or some other deep thinker of yore would have done, without the benefit of instant access to all sources for all things. I want to have someone whose grandfather told them tell me, a much more satisfying path to knowledge than the digital crutch that makes experts of everyone and every blog a newspaper.
Though my mind is distracted by these imponderables, hail to the sticky footprints of Chapel Hill and the tarred toe of Ty Lawson. This was no bear market rally, which is the debate Miss Market is moderating now. Which team will win? Miss Market is giving us a Mona Lisa smile, impossible to interpret. Come hither or You fool?
F, PALM and AMD have been good to us so far. Taking profits would be forgiven. But I’m sticking with them and avoiding financial names.
One Mona Lisa I think I do know is C.C. Sabathia. If he would put his hat on straight, he might get someone out.
Thursday, April 2, 2009
Mind Over Matter
The logic is impeccable. If you swing a baseball bat as a lefty you are, what, two or three feet closer to first base? This enables you to steal infield hits that would otherwise be routine outs if you can slap it to the left side.
Unfortunately in golf it matters little from what side you swing the club. You are not running anywhere. Yet Phil Mickelson does everything right-randed but swings as a lefty. I'm thinking of giving it a try after an afternoon of tearing up fairways with blunderbluss explosions of divots taken behind the ball.
Can there be a more exasperating experience than hitting a tee shot that is a work of art, the dimpled Titleist landing exactly where you want it, and then crashing the iron into the ground, spoiling what should have been a perfect chance for birdie, or if short, at least par?
Then the mind goes to work. It is filled with things you did wrong -- grip, posture, back swing, weight transfer, head moving.
And outside disruptions -- the clatter of geese in mating season (I couldn't think what else was in their walnut-sized brains); the haze over a view of the Manhattan skyline, where commerce was hopefully being conducted while the idle with a stick in their hands pondered a silly little spheroid in the outer reaches of the gentle, sloping borough of Queens; the realization that in 60 million years, or whatever, the sun will burn out and the earth will become a frozen ice ball. These things, too, race through the minds of golfers, noble creatures most of them, defying the gods with their simple game.
Made one birdie, one par, both on par threes, and played horrendously on numerous holes, too horrific to relate in front of women and children.
Miss Market has been so kind of late that I offered my birdie and par to her as a kind of sacrificial offering of thanksgiving. I know she is a jealous goddess and must be placated.
PALM jumped after hours on the RIMM news, and the NASDAQ is in the green for the year. Obama sounded upbeat in London. The jobs data tomorrow could be dire, but it is still considered a lagging indicator (aren't they all?). I'm breaking 100 next week.
Unfortunately in golf it matters little from what side you swing the club. You are not running anywhere. Yet Phil Mickelson does everything right-randed but swings as a lefty. I'm thinking of giving it a try after an afternoon of tearing up fairways with blunderbluss explosions of divots taken behind the ball.
Can there be a more exasperating experience than hitting a tee shot that is a work of art, the dimpled Titleist landing exactly where you want it, and then crashing the iron into the ground, spoiling what should have been a perfect chance for birdie, or if short, at least par?
Then the mind goes to work. It is filled with things you did wrong -- grip, posture, back swing, weight transfer, head moving.
And outside disruptions -- the clatter of geese in mating season (I couldn't think what else was in their walnut-sized brains); the haze over a view of the Manhattan skyline, where commerce was hopefully being conducted while the idle with a stick in their hands pondered a silly little spheroid in the outer reaches of the gentle, sloping borough of Queens; the realization that in 60 million years, or whatever, the sun will burn out and the earth will become a frozen ice ball. These things, too, race through the minds of golfers, noble creatures most of them, defying the gods with their simple game.
Made one birdie, one par, both on par threes, and played horrendously on numerous holes, too horrific to relate in front of women and children.
Miss Market has been so kind of late that I offered my birdie and par to her as a kind of sacrificial offering of thanksgiving. I know she is a jealous goddess and must be placated.
PALM jumped after hours on the RIMM news, and the NASDAQ is in the green for the year. Obama sounded upbeat in London. The jobs data tomorrow could be dire, but it is still considered a lagging indicator (aren't they all?). I'm breaking 100 next week.
Sunday, March 29, 2009
Lenin Is Relevant
Of course, many unpredictable things can happen, but straws in the wind suggest that life goes on -- existing and new home sales data, bullish talk from chastened banks, Obama's grace under pressure, inflation rising.
The short sellers and Rush Limbaughs cheering for failure might have to return to shouting about the nation's moral shortcomings and forget the apocalyptic economic rants.
I know, perhaps instead of straws in the wind, I am grasping at straws. After all, I once thought the market bottom was in November! So my imagination may be just that.
However, optimist that I am, I prefer to believe that the next shot is hitting the green from 200 yards out and putting for birdie. I base this on the evidence that stimulus in the pipeline and the economic data point to earnings gains and higher equity prices this year.
Mr. Geithner, the Treasury secretary is wrong, saying today the market cannot handle the crisis. No, the market will solve the problem. What he really means is the market's terrible swift sword would tear such gaping holes in the social fabric that a world lit only by fire would result.
Distasteful as it may be in some quarters, government must intervene aggressively to keep those who would let the market work its "magic" from losing their shirts, not to mention their heads. It's called saving capitalism from itself. Joseph Schumpeter (the economist of "creative destruction" fame) thought it couldn't survive.
Lenin's strategy of accentuating contradictions, i.e., things must get worse before they get better, works for Bolsheviks, but it only leads to dropping those who have the most to lose on the ash heap not only of history but a foreclosed McMansion.
Sticking with PALM, AMD and F, despite the Sooners' demise (OU held the Tar Heels to well below their average point total but still couldn't score themselves!). Oh well, it's just a game and I'm aiming for the green and replicating Woods' miraculous touch with the putter.
The short sellers and Rush Limbaughs cheering for failure might have to return to shouting about the nation's moral shortcomings and forget the apocalyptic economic rants.
I know, perhaps instead of straws in the wind, I am grasping at straws. After all, I once thought the market bottom was in November! So my imagination may be just that.
However, optimist that I am, I prefer to believe that the next shot is hitting the green from 200 yards out and putting for birdie. I base this on the evidence that stimulus in the pipeline and the economic data point to earnings gains and higher equity prices this year.
Mr. Geithner, the Treasury secretary is wrong, saying today the market cannot handle the crisis. No, the market will solve the problem. What he really means is the market's terrible swift sword would tear such gaping holes in the social fabric that a world lit only by fire would result.
Distasteful as it may be in some quarters, government must intervene aggressively to keep those who would let the market work its "magic" from losing their shirts, not to mention their heads. It's called saving capitalism from itself. Joseph Schumpeter (the economist of "creative destruction" fame) thought it couldn't survive.
Lenin's strategy of accentuating contradictions, i.e., things must get worse before they get better, works for Bolsheviks, but it only leads to dropping those who have the most to lose on the ash heap not only of history but a foreclosed McMansion.
Sticking with PALM, AMD and F, despite the Sooners' demise (OU held the Tar Heels to well below their average point total but still couldn't score themselves!). Oh well, it's just a game and I'm aiming for the green and replicating Woods' miraculous touch with the putter.
Saturday, December 13, 2008
I'm in with the In Crowd
Let's face it. All of us prefer to think we're right.
Failures and busted dreams are always the fault of others. Our straitened circumstances, failed relationships and foozled tee shots, not to mention our ravaged portfolios, which I will mention in a moment, are always the result of implacable, unseen forces that only the In Crowd (Dobie Gray, 1965; The Ramsey Lewis Trio instrumental version later that year) can control and take advantage of. Sing it, guys, "We make every minute count! Yeah! Our share is always the biggest amount..."
The credit crunch, not wearing a watch, "the sun was in my eyes" and slick suits in league with the Federal Reserve all serve as convenient foils. Just ask Dick Fuld.
However, as Grantland Rice put it much better than I, these are only aliases. The real names of these Four Horsemen are: Baby, the rain must fall; didn't want to know what time it was; forgot to wear a visor and Ivy League envy.
In other words, the day of the stock picker has arrived, in my view. The volatility of the market is as great as trading in individual names these days, so why not swing for the fences? Briefly, the downside risk appears to me to be roughly the same, but the upside potential seems greater.
Fifteen years ago, Byron Wien of Morgan Stanley fame (not name-dropping; I'm sure he doesn't remember me) penned a piece in the firm's Investment Perspectives that resonates with me still: "I Hear the Death Rattle of Indexing."
The death rattle is now as threatening as the menacing announcement of a diamondback's desire to survive.
Here are two names I would look at for a short-term trade: Advanced Micro Devices ($2.28, up $0.08 on Friday) and Palm Inc. ($2.30, up $0.52 on Friday). They're chasing Intel and Research in Motion, respectively, but both, I believe, have competitive products that the big boys need to have in the mix to keep them on their toes.
Full disclosure: I currently own neither AMD nor PALM, but plan to buy at the opening market price Monday (Dec. 15, 2008) morning and then go play golf at Dyker (supposed to be 60 degrees and sunny). As I said, I'm like everyone else. I prefer to think I'm right and will crow if I am and make excuses if I'm not. Sell ideas to come.
Kev's buy list: F (recommendation initiated 12/12/08; I own F shares, bought at $1.15 on 11/20/08), AMD, PALM (recommendation initiated 12/13/08).
Failures and busted dreams are always the fault of others. Our straitened circumstances, failed relationships and foozled tee shots, not to mention our ravaged portfolios, which I will mention in a moment, are always the result of implacable, unseen forces that only the In Crowd (Dobie Gray, 1965; The Ramsey Lewis Trio instrumental version later that year) can control and take advantage of. Sing it, guys, "We make every minute count! Yeah! Our share is always the biggest amount..."
The credit crunch, not wearing a watch, "the sun was in my eyes" and slick suits in league with the Federal Reserve all serve as convenient foils. Just ask Dick Fuld.
However, as Grantland Rice put it much better than I, these are only aliases. The real names of these Four Horsemen are: Baby, the rain must fall; didn't want to know what time it was; forgot to wear a visor and Ivy League envy.
In other words, the day of the stock picker has arrived, in my view. The volatility of the market is as great as trading in individual names these days, so why not swing for the fences? Briefly, the downside risk appears to me to be roughly the same, but the upside potential seems greater.
Fifteen years ago, Byron Wien of Morgan Stanley fame (not name-dropping; I'm sure he doesn't remember me) penned a piece in the firm's Investment Perspectives that resonates with me still: "I Hear the Death Rattle of Indexing."
The death rattle is now as threatening as the menacing announcement of a diamondback's desire to survive.
Here are two names I would look at for a short-term trade: Advanced Micro Devices ($2.28, up $0.08 on Friday) and Palm Inc. ($2.30, up $0.52 on Friday). They're chasing Intel and Research in Motion, respectively, but both, I believe, have competitive products that the big boys need to have in the mix to keep them on their toes.
Full disclosure: I currently own neither AMD nor PALM, but plan to buy at the opening market price Monday (Dec. 15, 2008) morning and then go play golf at Dyker (supposed to be 60 degrees and sunny). As I said, I'm like everyone else. I prefer to think I'm right and will crow if I am and make excuses if I'm not. Sell ideas to come.
Kev's buy list: F (recommendation initiated 12/12/08; I own F shares, bought at $1.15 on 11/20/08), AMD, PALM (recommendation initiated 12/13/08).
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