Moving Day

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Yours,
Kevin A. Donovan

So Are the Days of Our Lives

Before the sand runs out on this anno domini we turn our eyes outward to the great wide world to see what lies ahead when we flip the hourglass over for 2013.  Our only guarantee is that all will work out, regardless of our picks, just as it always has.

·         BCS Champion: Alabama will easily cover the 10-point spread vs. Notre Dame, which should have at least three losses (Pittsburgh, Stanford, USC).  The Irish run out of luck.

·         Super Bowl Champion: Seattle Seahawks.  Russell Wilson is preternaturally confident and should be rookie of the year over RG III and Andrew Luck.

·         NCAA Men’s Basketball Champion:  Butler.  Bulldogs shed bridesmaid role on the strength of Rotnei Clarke’s jump shot.

·         World Series Champion: Toronto Blue Jays.  Ricky Romero wins Cy Young award.  We’re not kidding.

·         NBA Champion:  Who cares, but we’re going with the L.A. Clippers for entertainment purposes only.

·         Stocks of the Year: Tesla Motors (TSLA), Barnes & Noble (BKS) and Cobalt International Energy (CIE).  Tesla, the electric car maker is poised to grow big-time; Barnes & Noble’s Nook device and partnership with Microsoft should pay off; and Cobalt keeps finding oil in what we think will be a rising oil price environment.  You can check out our calls on istockanalyst.com by clicking here and here for TSLA; here for BKS, and here for CIE.

Surprises for the year:

·         No meaningful gun control legislation, despite being a no-brainer.

·         Oil will average over $100 a barrel despite booming production, because . . .

·         . . . economic growth will hit 3% and stay there, because the Fed will not ease off the gas pedal until it does and business and consumer confidence revive.

·          The Republican Party, fearful of joining the Whigs, will turn a corporate cold shoulder on its Tea Party hijackers.

Meanwhile, we bid adieu to 2012 thankful for all the usual suspects – healthy children, loyal friends, a repeatable golf swing.  Happy New Year.

Escape Velocity

The luckiest member of the club, yours truly, was recently fortunate enough to witness this mise en scène one early fall day.

“No,” he said, raising his arm Caesar-like to still the murmuring plebeians in the gallery.  “It is part of my plan.” 

He had used the driver to carry a creek and reach the right fringe of the 164-yard par three.  Choosing his two-ball putter, he navigated the bristly grass to the putting surface but left the ball woefully short, some 30 feet from the hole.  The country club crowd groaned.  Saving par seemed gone with the wind to the Dixie gentry surrounding the kidney-shaped green.

Surveying the slick pool table from every angle, his cool gaze hidden by Ray-Bans, a wry smile cracked the usual steel of his face.  Square in the line of his intended roll laid a crinkly, brown leaf, late of some thirsty dogwood.  The smile on his lips belied the click of tumblers locking into place in his calculating brain.

He addressed the dimpled sphere with something akin to insouciance.  But the expression was tinged with resignation, cuing the parasol-wielding ladies to cluck and the aristocratic Ashley Wilkeses watching the spectacle to shake their heads in sympathy at our foolish Rhett Butler.

Without a practice stroke, he launched the blade.  The ball marched on a straight line to the hole, the dogwood leaf standing athwart history and yelling “Stop!”  This was no Titleist poodle, though.  The determined Top-Flite tank  struck the impediment and veered up a hillock to the devilish location of the hole atop it.  With the satisfying rattle of ball in cup, parasols were flung in the air and shouts of “Good show, old boy” echoed back to the stately clubhouse, rattling the bourbon-filled coffee cups at a meeting of the Ladies Auxiliary of the Knights of the Mystic Mango.  Even cars that used to skedaddle in fear when their operators saw our hero on the tee box that abuts a city boulevard joined the halleluiah chorus with a torrent of horn blowing. 

Our hero doffed his visor with a “my work here is done” flourish and sauntered away to collect his trophy.

This was an up and down for the ages.  No, it was actually a down and up.  Little did the adoring masses realize that every butcher, baker and candlestick maker among them would soon be traveling the same arc of success.  The reason?  Our hero merely recognized that MV=PQ.  All that was needed was more V, velocity, that is, to find the sweet spot.  M, money supply, had been growing, but PQ, price level times quantity of goods and services, had remained anemic.  Velocity, the number of times a dollar is spent, hasn’t done its part – yet.

If history is any guide, V is about to begin pulling its weight.  Here’s a chart courtesy of the St. Louis Fed.  Shaded areas are U.S. recessions.

What the chart tells us is that velocity typically falls in the early stages of recovery, shooting higher as a “virtuous circle” of growing consumer confidence and generous monetary policy conspire to fuel growth.

What could go wrong?  V could continue to fall, facing the “fiscal cliff” that looms in 2013.  That could turn our down and up par save into down and down triple bogey.

Ben Bernanke, Social Worker

The Western World has become central bank-centric.  While China seems to be furiously ginning up public works projects to support growth, Europe and the U.S. are relying on monetary policy.  Financial markets have taken notice, expecting the money spigots to begin gushing again.

That may be the problem for equity investors.  If new money creation is already baked in the cake, the time-worn axiom of buy the rumor and sell the news could well be in play.  We expect swimming in place to be the trend until decisions from the Federal Open Market Committee and a German constitutional court are announced midweek.

First to the old world.  The European Central Bank authorized unlimited bond purchases last week, making good on ECB chief Mario Draghi’s word to do whatever it took to defend the euro.  But a group of German lawmakers are seeking an injunction preventing German participation in the plan.  The court rules Wednesday.

On this side of the Atlantic, all signs point to what we have been expecting since the summer began – a third round of quantitative easing by the Fed.  It has long been our opinion that the Fed was duty-bound by both statute and conscience to act anew.  With the August jobs report showing a disappointing addition of 96,000 jobs and an unemployment rate pushed down only by an exodus from the work force of the forlorn, it seems the Fed has all the cover it needs to boost money supply growth in the hope it translates into real economic activity.

For his part, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke made it clear at Jackson Hole the week before that policy makers could and would act if needed, remarking not only on the dry numbers describing the economic landscape but the cost to the social fabric of continued bleak employment prospects.

“As we assess the benefits and costs of alternative policy approaches, though, we must not lose sight of the daunting economic challenges that confront our nation.  The stagnation of the labor market in particular is a grave concern not only because of the enormous suffering and waste of human talent it entails, but also because persistently high levels of unemployment will wreak structural damage on our economy that could last for many years,” Bernanke said.

He also laid the groundwork for further action by defending the efficacy of the Fed’s prior rounds of extraordinary bond buying.

“For example, a study using the Board's FRB/US model of the economy found that, as of 2012, the first two rounds of LSAPs[large-scale asset purchases] may have raised the level of output by almost 3 percent and increased private payroll employment by more than 2 million jobs, relative to what otherwise would have occurred,” he said. 

The rubber meets the road Wednesday when the FOMC is slated to announce its policy decision.  At the very least, expect language in the directive extending the time horizon for keeping the Federal Funds rate target close to zero.

As for political considerations, we think they are also zero.  The Republican presidential candidate, Mitt Romney, has already said he would replace Bernanke, a Republican, if elected.  And the lags in monetary policy’s effect on the real economy prevent any palpable help for President Obama before the November election.

Meanwhile, the usual round of economic reports that follow the tone-setting employment data is slated for release.  Inflation news should be of no consequence, despite rising food and oil prices.  The biggest market mover outside central bank actions is likely to be Friday’s release of August retail sales.  Economists expect another 0.8% increase over the prior month.  A shortfall could hit markets hard if the Fed has failed to act.

Pool Dancing

You can have your Usain Bolts, Michael Phelpses and Gabby Douglases; we prefer the anonymous practitioners of synchronized swimming, an athletic art that rivals the music of the spheres for precision and elegance – kinda like the sporting life on this side of the Atlantic.  Not.  Equity prices rose and bonds fell, sending the discordant message that economic growth and rising inflation lies ahead.

Considering the fiscal cliff the U.S. is hurtling toward, financial markets are either blissfully optimistic or whistling past the graveyard.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.32% Friday and is up 8.9% so far in the second half of the year.  Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has risen 20 basis points since June 1 to 1.65%.

The action came against a skeletal backdrop.  Productivity in the second quarter was reported to have risen 1.6% after falling 0.5% in the first quarter, when hiring was more robust.  The cruelest irony of the soft jobs market is that rising output per worker has meant less pressure for firms to add workers.

Wholesale inventories declined 0.2% in July, signaling either increasing demand or business pessimism – take your pick.  And the federal budget went $70 billion further in the red last month versus a $60 billion deficit in June.

The most encouraging news was the surprising drop in initial jobless claims to 361,000 versus an expectation of 370,000.  Our colleague Rich Bieglmeier was spot on with his call on this high-frequency series.

There will be stronger hooks to hang a hat on this week.  Tuesday brings the biggest number, retail sales for July.  Recall that last month’s report of a 0.5% decline in June kindled fresh speculation that the economy was tipping over and the Federal Reserve would be forced to act.  Economists generally expect a 0.2% increase in sales and 0.3% increase excluding automobiles.

The producer price index for July, also on Tuesday, is seen rising a benign 0.2% including and excluding food and fuel prices.  The consumer price index, to be released Wednesday is seen rising a similar amount.  Also Wednesday, the Empire State Index of August business activity in New York, industrial production in July and the homebuilders index are slated for release.

Also on tap are jobless claims, housing starts and the Philadelphia Fed’s survey on Thursday.

On the earnings front, big retailers are in the spotlight.  On tap to report quarterly results are Home Depot, Wal-Mart, Target and Sears.  The results could be key to setting the tone for the week.

This week, we inaugurate our Houdini Award with a nod to Goldman Sachs for escaping criminal prosecution for touting securities it was betting against, proving once again it’s better to be right and lucky.

And our Laurel Wreath goes to Shakespeare’s “scepter’d isle,” for hosting all the Bolts, Phelpses, Douglases and synchronized swimmers while delighting our teenage daughter with a closing ceremony performance of English boy band One Direction.

Meanwhile, U.S. investors prepare for the post-Olympics fiscal cliff-diving competition in 2013.  Good luck.

Real Tough Guys

Spare us the oohing and aahing over the “severity” of the sanctions against Pennsylvania State University football in the wake of an investigation that found the sainted Joe Paterno guilty of covering up for a child rapist.  If we were Southern Methodist University, we would secede from the National Collegiate Athletic Association, hire a lawyer and sue for the revenue it lost when its football program was kicked to the curb.

All SMU got from the NCAA was the death penalty in the early 1980s for the good old-fashioned all-American way of gaining an edge  –  paying its scholars to block and tackle.  But Penn State?  It still gets to play, pack its stadium with 100,000-plus fans for each home game this season, and still be on television.  Great.  If you’re so inclined you’ll be able to watch and listen to the blow-dried bloviators speak of the indomitable Penn State community and the “healing” virtues of intercollegiate competition.

This is what passes for disapproval.  Oh well.  We’ll get over it, though we won’t be as big a college football fan as we used to be.  We’re free of that now.  Of course, Western Civilization will fall if Oklahoma falls to Texas this October, but we can take it.

What we can’t take is the sense that the NCAA is somehow trampling out the vintage where the grapes of wrath are stored.  Self-righteous to a fault, the NCAA proved to be as gutless as the Penn State administration and its hypocritical head coach.  We don’t have the numbers, but $60 million is probably what parking tickets are to Federal Express   –   just the cost of doing business

No, the NCAA flubbed it.  To sleep at night it chose to tell itself a story, the one about what a tough guy it was for making the Lions cut back on the number of linebacking studs it could stuff into Theory of Volleyball 101.

In our ideal world, every male freshman would receive a flyer (or a text message nowadays) informing him of football tryouts the Saturday before Labor Day, leather helmets would be optional, the coach would be a professor wanting to make some extra dough.

But, alas, it isn’t so and never was.  The men who ran Penn State and its football “program” thought it more important than little boys and sought to protect it rather than them.  By not pulling the plug, so did the NCAA.

Rescue Me

Lumberjacks yelled TIMBERRR!  Golfers bellowed FORE! Markets wailed LEMMEE OUTA HERE!  Yep, last week’s reports from the Institute for Supply Management and the Bureau of Labor Statistics provided scary bookends for the mounting body of evidence the U.S. economy is rolling over.  But are equity prices anticipating rescue?

Though the major stock indices went south Friday, they remain higher than the close on June 1, when the May payrolls report ushered in the specter of recession.  The S&P 500 closed Friday at 1,354.68, down 124 points on the day and off 0.8% for the week, but up 6.0% since June 1. Similarly, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, also down 0.8% on the week, is up 5.4% since June 1.  And the NASDAQ Composite, which managed a gain of 0.1% for the week, is up 6.9% since June 1.  The market’s performance leads us to believe sentiment still clings to the expectation that policy levers will be used to keep the motor running. 

Pessimists sing along with Diana Ross and the Supremes that  “… there ain’t nothin’ I can do about it.”  Fiscal policy is all but sidelined by Washington gridlock in this election year, and some central bankers are dogged by the uneasy sense that more action is futile in an economy caught in a liquidity trap.

But Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has rejected the notion the Fed has no arrows left in its quiver and has pledged the Fed is ready to act if necessary.  The upshot, we believe, is that QE 3 is inevitable.  We think another round of quantitative easing, that is, printing money by purchasing financial assets from commercial banks, will be launched at the Federal Open Market Committee’s next meeting in August.  The minutes from the June FOMC meeting will be parsed when they are released on Wednesday.  The policy makers extended “Operation Twist” at that meeting.

The argument for further Fed action got support last week from news that the ISM’s diffusion index of manufacturing activity in the U.S. slumped into contraction territory for the first time in three years, falling to 49.7% in June from 53.5% in May.  The production and employment sub-indexes were up, but a steep drop in new orders was the canary in the coal mine.

And the notion of an incipient downturn grew stronger with Friday’s news that nonfarm payrolls grew a paltry 80,000 in June, below expectations that were raised when ADP said Thursday that its survey of private sector employment showed a gain of 176,000.  The unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.2%.

Abroad, the misery continued as Eurostat reported the unemployment rate in the 17-nation euro zone rose to a record 11.1% in May from 11% the previous month.  Spain's unemployment rate was the highest in the euro zone at 24.6%, while Austria had the lowest jobless rate at 4.1%.

Next week, the producer price index and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey will be released Friday.  For now, though, it’s up to earnings season to set the tone.

The Week That Was and the One to Come

Oh what a week it was for relationship building.  Chief Justice Roberts and enough Supremes stopped in the name of love from jilting Obamacare, the European Union got less unperfect and Miss Data wasn’t all that into us but friendly enough.  Mr. Market responded to it all with outsized gains on the last trading day of the quarter.

Ahead, of course, is the June jobs report to be released at the end of a four-day work week.  The May report showed a disappointing 69,000 additions to nonfarm payrolls, so the June statistics will be looked at for trend confirmation or reversal and the impact on monetary policy makers.    

But let’s look at what last week told us.

SCOTUS STOCKS

Shares of hospital companies predictably shot higher because the Supreme Court’s 5-4 decision to preserve the Affordable Care Act largely intact means care providers will have more paying customers.  Insurers sagged because the Act imposes restrictions that could hurt profits. 
Despite the predictable Tea Party exasperation, we suspect corporate America was relieved that one cloud of uncertainty was gone.

A MORE PERFECT (EUROPEAN) UNION

The stock market took great pleasure in the outcome of the EU summit in Brussels.  What that outcome will lead to, however, is harder to figure out.  No matter.  Mr. Market has a story and he’s sticking to it – for now. 

As best we can tell, the EU decided to decide about recapitalizing banks and creating a pan Eurozone banking regulator, taking the first step toward a real fiscal union that would issue Eurobonds backed by everybody, including that old killjoy Germany and the prodigal sons of the south.

THE WEEKLY DATA DATE

We think the most worrisome indicators were two releases from Chicago, the city that works, the poet said.

The little noticed Chicago Fed’s national activity index reached the lowest level in a year, dropping to a three-month average of -0.34 in May from -0.13 in April. The one-month index dropped to -0.45 in May from +0.08 in April. The Chicago Fed asserts that below -0.7 on the three-month average indicates a recession has likely begun.

The much more noticed Chicago Purchasing Managers Index stayed in expansion territory at 52.9% in May vs. 52.7% in April.  But here’s what caught our attention:  New orders and order backlogs were a negative and inventories rose.  That’s not a recipe for growth.

Meanwhile, from Washington we learned that personal income increased 0.2% in May, largely on investment gains.  Personal consumption expenditures, however, were flat vs. the prior month.
Paradoxically, the brightest star in the sky continues to be housing, the keystone of sustained expansion.  The Case-Shiller price index rose 1.3% in May.

THE WEEK TO COME

As noted, the big dog will be the June employment report on Friday.  Economists are looking for about a 100,000 gain in payrolls and unchanged unemployment rate of 8.2%.  ADP will preview the Labor Department’s number with the release of its private sector payroll tally on Thursday.

If the jobs numbers come in as weak as May’s, expect talk of another round of quantitative easing by the Fed.  Ben Bernanke said the Fed was ready to act if the economy required it.
Also on tap are the ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index for manufacturing for June and construction spending for May on Monday.  Factory orders for May is out Tuesday.

The U.S. shuts down Wednesday to celebrate its independence.   Happy Fourth.

The Rock Market Decoded

Imperfection being the constant of the human condition, equity valuations are always undershooting or overshooting, kind of like our putting stroke.  This condemns investors to watching our old pal Sisyphus push the rock uphill only to see it roll down again.  This is what economists, lyrical souls that they are, call “reversion to the mean.”

So, whether pondering the futility of our golf game or the arc of stock prices, one asks: “Where is that damn rock headed?”

To answer this, we are faced with another conundrum.  It can be said that equity valuations are predictors of corporate profitability, which, in the aggregate, depends on economic growth.  Those valuations should adjust as evidence accrues one way or the other.  This is what finance professors, ever the blithe spirits, call the “discounted cash flow or dividend discount model.”

But, as Mitt Romney was laughed at for averring, corporations are people.  If they depend on economic growth for wealth creation, they must – like each butcher, baker and candlestick maker who makes up the economy – be doing the growing themselves.

Or, in the words of another presidential candidate, the sage possum Pogo of yesteryear’s funny papers, “We have met the enemy and he is us.”

Which leads us to yet another riddle (Bear with us; fearless predictions will be forthcoming).  If we assume the market never gets it right, our task is to divine in which direction the rock is undershooting or overshooting.  This is what Wall Street wags mean when they say, “Nobody rings a bell at the top.”

We find it our task, then, to stand athwart the midpoint of 2012 and judge the direction of economic growth and its doppelganger, the rock on the hillside.  As always, the evidence is inconclusive, but try we must and, again like Sisyphus and our erratic putting, take pleasure in the effort if not its result.

First, let’s put the concerns of this vale of tears into four buckets in order of significance:

The Old World: Europe is falling into recession.  Greece is a mess.  Spanish unemployment is 24%. The break-up of the Eurozone appears imminent.

The New World: U.S. real GDP growth slowed to a 1.9% annual rate in the first quarter.  Jobs growth has plummeted from 200,000-plus per month in the winter to just 69,000 in May.  The “fiscal cliff” of 2013 looms.

The Orient: China’s gallop has slowed to what for it is a trot, with GDP growth at “just” 8% or so.

The Golf Course: Can we build a repeatable swing?

Next, let’s parse these concerns and spy which way the rock will rotate.

The Old World: Germany, already caving to the growth advocates, will accommodate them further.  The European Central Bank will cooperate.  Italy’s technocratic compromise, though far from the best of all worlds, will be copied.

The New World:  Romney could very well be president and inherit a recovering economy (the very one he is running against, reminiscent of Bill Clinton’s good fortune in 1992).  If Europe can muddle through (see above) expect the rock to signal economic growth.  Whoever is elected, we can’t believe politicians will be so thickheaded as to let sequestration and tax hikes to kick in January 1.

The Orient:  China may be the model for the rest of the policy makers in the civilized world.  With inflation slowing, the authorities have plenty of room to address slumping growth.  The central bank recently cut interest rates for the first time since 2008, and the government is looking to ramp up public investment projects.

The Golf Course:  Head down, eye on the ball, turn in a barrel, all without thinking about it.

Our conclusion:  Buy the dips and take one more club than your ego tells you.  Sisyphus would do no less.

Jobs Market Goes to the Movies

Payrolls grew in April, so what’s to grouse about?  Edward G. Robinson’s reply in Key Largo to Humphrey Bogart’s observation comes to mind.  “Yeah, that’s it! More! That’s right. I want more.”

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 115,000 jobs were created last month, below the 160,000 or so economists were expecting.  Prior months were revised upward, though.  February job growth was pegged at 259,000, up from the previous 240,000 estimate, and March payrolls are now seen as having risen 154,000 vs. the 120,000 gain previously reported.

The average work week was unchanged at 34.5 hours in April. The manufacturing workweek edged up by 0.1 hour to 40.8 hours, and factory overtime rose by 0.1 hour to 3.4 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees was unchanged at 33.8 hours.

In April, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 1 cent to $23.38. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 1.8 percent.  In April, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 3 cents to $19.72.

The unemployment rate dipped slightly to 8.1% from 8.2%, largely because participation in the labor market shrank.

BLS data in all their glory can be found at http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm.

This tepid growth in jobs and stagnation in wages suggests the economy remained aloft in the first month of the second quarter, though its air speed drifted to levels that should cause concern in the cockpit.

Perhaps the warm winter skewed earlier figures abnormally higher and economic growth is settling back to a more realistic level.  Perhaps the specter of the unraveling of that great fossil museum known as Europe weighs on international corporations’ animal spirits.  And perhaps the sleeping housing construction sector is a cork still lodged in the champagne bottle.

Whatever the cause, expect sideways action in the stock and bond markets for the foreseeable future.  With most of the impetus from positive first-quarter earnings surprises now spent, international events (particularly elections in France and Greece) could take center stage in the investment melodrama.

For the faint of heart (and our ticker is none too aroused right now), we nominate dividend payers such as AT&T (T) and Philip Morris (MO).  Americans may not be working as much as they would like, but they’re not going to give up cell phones or smoking.  

Keeping Score

We shot a 97 on a par-64 municipal track this week. Like Mark Twain’s assessment of Wagner, It was better than it sounds. Really.

In fact, we cut 10 strokes off that in a later round – the first time we have broken 90 – by somehow eliminating enough three-, four- and, yes, even five-putts. Mirabile dictu! It's true! Drive for show and putt for dough.

Likewise, the U.S. economy's game won't be mistaken for one of Bubba Watson's Homeric drives, but the advance estimate of first-quarter gross domestic product showed that efficient work by the 14^th club in the bag kept e pluribus unum in the hunt.

The Commerce Department reported Thursday that real GDP advanced at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.2% in the first three months of 2012, down from a 3.0% rate in the fourth quarter of 2011. Business investment and inventories were the big subtracting factors. But the big dog, the consumer, overcame those drags. Final consumption charged ahead at a 2.9% rate, adding two points to growth, up from 2.1% in the fourth quarter. It was the biggest contribution to expansion since the final months of 2010.

In all, the data buttressed our view that the U.S. has reached escape velocity and won't veer into a double-dip recession, like Europe appears to be doing. Indeed, the U.S. is once again the hope of the world. The American consumer is crucial to Europe and Asia, lands that depend on America's appetite for goods ranging from German cars to Chinese T-shirts. The increase in consumption should also translate into more investment and inventory building on these shores in the months to come.

The stock market responded, shrugging off the headline number, helped, obviously, by sterling earnings reports from Apple and Ford. Fully 71% of companies comprising the S&P 500 that have so far reported first-quarter results beat analysts' mean estimates, according to Bloomberg News.

Barring unforecastable cataclysms, we expect the rally to continue. The S&P 500 is trading at a trailing 12-months price-to-earnings ratio of about 16, compared with a historical mean of about 15, according to the Wall Street Journal. We expect the “P” to grow as the “E” keeps swelling in a growing economy. As in our historic breaching of the 90 threshold, momentum is serious scorecard medicine.

Apocalypse (Not) Now

Dare we say it? Those “green shoots” (a false spring in 2009) appear to be sprouting again in the United States, while foreign fields remain fallow. We argue that this dichotomy is seed corn for global economic expansion that can be wrecked only by the four horsemen of the Apocalypse – war, famine, pestilence, death, the latter of which comes to all of us in the long run, as Keynes famously said. We cannot reasonably forecast the other three, so we will stipulate, for the sake of our analysis, they will remain sidelined. This premise is, of course, a bit of a stretch given the apocalyptic tenor of the times, but assume it we must if we are to proceed down this primrose path.

Our first stop is the land of e pluribus unum. Times being what they were, Americans took the jobs, some 200,000 of them a month for a while, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But no, from out of nowhere (as that famous economist Howard Cosell used to intone), job growth slipped in March – a late frost that threatened to wither those ephemeral seedlings seen sprouting. Another month of lackluster job growth could prove fatal to the outlook for the American spring, particularly if hourly wages remain stagnant.

We remain sanguine, though. For one, oil prices have yet to choke and they have likely peaked. We don’t expect one of our four horsemen, war with Iran, to ride again for some time, and the latest American Petroleum Institute data show inventories on the rise. What’s more, economic growth, though far from boiling, should maintain escape velocity with the latest trade data forcing economists to up their forecasts for first quarter expansion toward the 3% annual rate that offers enough momentum to prevent a stall.

No, the US is probably OK until January, when across-the-board federal spending cuts are slated to kick in. Far be it from us to forecast political outcomes, but it’s hard to believe there won’t be some dickering to soften the fiscal blow no matter who is President or which party controls Congress.

Surely what matters now lies elsewhere in the world, specifically the European Union (our pestilential horseman) and the People’s Republic of China (saddling the famine entry). The former is the biggest worry. Contagion is … well, contagious. Recall, the US financial mess that spread abroad and so artfully ameliorated by Bernanke and company. Expect further selloffs in US equities if Spain’s bond auction goes poorly this week. The EU’s German-dominated direction is perversely aimed at austerity when only growth can save the day. But we think it’s more or less baked in the cake.

Strangely, alarm bells are ringing over the famine nag, the world apparently scared that an undernourished China signals a dearth of demand in the western world. China recently reported another slowdown in growth, but lost in the story is that this outcome is exactly what the Chinese authorities planned – slower growth to prevent overheating and achieve the elusive soft landing of which central bankers’ dreams are made.

For those as optimistic as we are, buy the S&P 500 on weakness. Specifically, we like Ford (F) and Riverbed Technology (RVBD). The former is confident enough to have begun paying a dividend again. We like the latter’s prospects in wide-area network optimization as global growth maintains momentum.

For the more faint of heart, tried and true makers of products that cater to our vices should withstand economic turmoil. In this vein, we like Altria (MO), purveyor of the iconic American cigarette for which we and a host of others have a weakness.

However, we don’t think the Marlboro man need ride to the rescue. He can remain dismounted along with the horsemen of end time.

2012 Confidential

With more than a month and a half of 2012 under our belt and the fate of the Western world teetering in the balance, we make these fearless prognostications for the remainder of this anno domini.

Gasoline goes to $5 a gallon and Barack Obama is re-elected anyway. The Republican field is so unpalatable that even Rick Santorum may be a tastier dish than Mitt Romney, which is to say unelectable. The argument has shifted from the Obama defense that the economy “would have been worse” if its life jackets hadn't been distributed to the Republican pout that “it would have been even better” if, for instance, Motown had not been bailed out. Either conceit is a dog that won't hunt.

The world will remain asynchronous. The United States took its lumps and is now pulling out of it. It's Europe's turn now to pay the piper for fecklessness. The Old World will pull out of it, too. By the end of 2012, U.S. consumption growth will be the engine that gets the euro zone and its environs back on the growth path. Buy France Telecom (FTE) for the lush dividend.

Uranium stocks will double as nuclear power gains currency. Buy Denison Mines (DNN) and Cameco (CCJ).

The Southeastern Conference will not have a representative in the BCS championship game. Call us a conspiracy theorist, but the other conferences are so sick with envy of the riches the SEC keeps piling up that they'll rig the computers.

The St. Louis ball club will repeat as World Series champions without Albert Pujols, who will hit .260 for the Anaheim ball club.

Speaking of St. Louis, the University thereof will be the surprise team in the NCAA basketball tournament. The Billikens are quietly 21-5. Pick them to get to the sweet 16 when the office bracket sheets are distributed.

Red Sox manager Bobby Valentine will bow to umpires when presenting lineup cards and curse them only in Japanese, thus avoiding ejection the entire season.

Apple and Nike will announce a joint venture to market smart-phone swoosh logos that athletes can use to tweet with while competing on the field, court or golf course.

The next sports scandal will be a gambling fraud at the next Super Bowl. The National Anthem singer will string out the song beyond the over/under prop bet time at the behest of organized crime. Hey, who would have thought a safety would be the first score of this year's game?

We will break 100 more than once this year and our lost sand wedge will be returned.

Requiem for a Sand Wedge

Accepting that you’ll never be happy again yields a certain happiness, just as knowing that one’s favorite sand wedge, forgotten on a green in the shadow of War Memorial Stadium, will remain forever in the bag of a scoundrel who found the forlorn stick and kept it for himself. Your short game will never be quite the same, but there is satisfaction in believing that whatever metaphysical power guides the universe will invest the wayward wedge with the power to poison the gentleman’s game from here to eternity.

Oh, it was a cheap thing – a bargain close-out inscribed with the name of the “wee ice man,” the man who believed as we do that putting is not golf. The American League employs the designated hitter, so why not a designated putter for those of us challenged by this feminine activity? Our choice would be Paula Creamer. We’d even let her use the pink ball she favors.

Cheap or not, it filled us with confidence when we heard the magical click of club head striking the cover of our Titleist, sending it like an exploding kernel of popcorn to a designated area near the cup, the face of the shiny wand smudged with a new fleck of candy red from the identifying inscription applied by a Sharpie to the ball.

We miss it so. There is a permanent longing to regain it, an ache so sharp yet so sweet, that, as we said, it begets a wistful nostalgia, an ennobling emotion, filled with the grandiosity of self that we gain only by losing – in this case a bloodied scepter now serving another master.

This sporting life affords us few opportunities for this peculiar satisfaction, so we savor it more than the well-struck tee shot delivered by a brutish driver. No, it is a finer thing than that, this world we have lost, always on the horizon, forever out of reach but glimmering with the promise that it can be regained. Now, if we can only enlist Ms. Creamer to pinch putt for us.

*******************

Our tattered flag is still waving after taking a beating, for entertainment purposes only. Let’s put 5,000 destroyers on Navy -7 over Army today to wrap up the college football season. Bowl picks to come.

Earthbound

Could Arkansas ever play in the national championship game? When pigs fly. After a flashy start, these Hogs remained pedestrians, pushed back into the mire by a Honey Badger named Tyrann Mathieu and his geaux-geaux Acadians in Baton Rouge.

This leaves the door open for one-loss teams Stanford and Virginia Tech to sneak in, assuming Oklahoma can vanquish Oklahoma State next week.

We were 3 and 2 last week, but nevertheless lost 300 from our goodwill bundle because, for the first time this year, our lock of the week let us down. The setback brings our year-to-date total to plus 10,790. For entertainment purposes only, we will double down on rivalry Saturday. You know, throw out the record books when these teams tangle.

Let’s put 2,000 BCS computers each on:

Michigan -7 ½ over Ohio State (Wolverines’ Denard Robinson dots the “i” for Buckeyes’ band)

Auburn +21 over Alabama (War Eagles, Plainsmen, Tigers – pick a nickname – will stun Tide. Michael Dyer outrushes Heisman hopeful Trent Richardson)

Illinois -11 over Minnesota (Just because the Golden Gophers stink)

Baylor -13 over Texas Tech (The Bears boast our vote for the Heisman – RG III)

Lock of the Week – Over/Under

Iowa State vs. Oklahoma over 60 (Sooners’ secondary exposed by aforementioned Griffin last week. Expect beaucoups points)

Agents of KAOS

Like the Republican presidential clown show, the BCS scrum has become a race to the bottom. Only Maxwell Smart and 99 can outwit this sharp-as-tacks crowd. Last night, the Cowboys, nee Aggies, of Stillwater were exposed as the latest pretender, much to the chagrin of our beloved Sooners, who were looking to knock off an undefeated Oklahoma State two weeks hence and insinuate themselves back into the championship picture.

Our pre-season pick of OU and Arkansas in the national championship game, though still possible, looks unlikely. Both will have to win out and Oregon must stumble. Alabama, though, will probably remain the highest-ranked one-loss team, and LSU with its wins against Alabama, Oregon and West Virginia, could be in the picture as well, even if it loses next week to Arkansas, who we expect to fall tonight to Mississippi State in Little Rock.

We stumbled last week, going two of five, losing 300 poll points to bring our straw vote to plus 11,090 on the year. But, hey, we're a leader not a reader. And our work as a historian has profited us handsomely so far. Our latest client is a little weak on his colonial period, so we've got to get to work and leave you with these Tiffany's gifts. For entertainment purposes only, let's put 1,000 Freddie Macs each on the following and 2,000 on our lock of the week.

Mississippi State +13 over Arkansas (Hogs have fed too much at the trough of luck. Bulldogs' Chris Relf leads team to upset)

Houston -20.5 over Southern Methodist (Casey Keenum leads Cougars. Alas, Houston will be the only undefeated team not making it to the championship)

Southern California +14 ½ over Oregon (Trojans have enough horses to keep it close)

Kansas State +8 over Texas (How can the Longhorns be the favorite after scoring just a safety and a field goal against Missouri last week?)

Lock of the Week – Over/Under
Wisconsin vs. Illinois over 51(Both teams can score, though the Illini have been anemic of late. Badgers prevail late on a Russell Wilson TD toss)

What Rough Beast

It is often remarked that there is no fool like an old fool. We should know.

But rarely does the foolishness descend to a circle of hell not limned by “il Sommo Poeta.” It is a special place for the old man who stays too long at the fair, blinded enough by his specialness to tell the bosses they don’t need to spend another second discussing his future because he’s quitting their vale of tears after a few more slack-jawed, back-bent shuffles to the Penn State sidelines.

Bad form, old sport. Check your glasses. Grandiosity little becomes you now.

Greater pens than ours have opined on the scandal (the very word seems inadequate) unfolding in State College, Pa., like Yeats’ beast slouching toward Bethlehem. We can add no more to the chorus of obvious revulsion, so we’ll leave it at this; the ugly critter is slouching still. There is much more to come in this unpretty spectacle of men too old and too cocooned by enabling fans and hagiographers to man up.

For entertainment purposes only, our picks follow. Last week we were perfect, going five for five and adding 6,000 units, bringing our year-to-date bounty to plus 11,390.

We will put 1,000 units on these four contests and 2,000 on our lock of the week.

Spread:

Stanford -3 ½ over Oregon (The Trees’ defense is the star of this one)

Wisconsin -27 ½ over Minnesota (The behemoths manning the Badger line will maul the Gophers)

UCLA +7 over Utah (UCLANS will win the Pac-12 south)

Tennessee +14 ½ over Arkansas (Volunteers hung tough against 'Bama for a half)

Over/Under Lock of the Week:

Texas A&M vs. Kansas State over 65 (Aggies can't stop anybody, but will score 35 themselves in the first half)

You're Looking Live at the 21st Century

It's game of the century time. Numbers one and two vie for what looks like a ticket to the BCS championship game. We attended the 20th century version of this dust-up in 1971, when the late Jack Mildren heaved the number-two Sooners on his crimson shoulders, only to be outdone by the number-one Huskers' Johnny Rodgers (an armed robber who got away with another crime – a punt return TD aided by an uncalled clip).

Oh well, it's just a game. Sure, and Scarlett Johansson is just a woman. If the LSU-Alabama game follows the script of its predecessor, LSU gets the win on the road.

After a rousing win of 1,800 leatherheads last week (to bring our college total to 5,390), we venture, for entertainment purposes only, 1,000 face masks each on:

University of Southern California -20 over Colorado (the woeful Buffaloes have yet to win a Pac-10 game)

Louisiana State +5 over Alabama (Thuggish Bayou brawlers force McCarron to pass and pick off three of them. It's ebb Tide)

Stanford -21 over Oregon State (The Trees keep standing tall. Beavers can't gnaw these Redwoods down. Luck has everything to do with a perfect record vs. spread – the QB and the Lady.)

Wisconsin -26 over Purdue (Boilermakers may trot out the Purdue Golden Girl to distract Bucky Badger, but it won't work)


Lock of the Week (2,000 chinstraps):
Over/Under

South Carolina vs. Arkansas over 52 (Gamecocks get feisty against Razorbacks' defensive sieve. Final score Arkansas 35, South Carolina 21).

Alas, we will miss the LSU-Alabama game as we will be ensconced at Reynolds-Razorback Stadium to watch the live action. We'll be the fellow with the hog hat on snout-backwards.

It's Gone to Our Head

It's been a banner week for the Pontiff of Picks. Saturdays have become a Holy Day of Obligation for those wishing to save their immoral, er immortal, souls. We stored up treasures in heaven worth 1,950 cherubim in our last outing, bringing our season-to-date total to plus 3,590, for enertainment purposes only.

Herewith are our pre-Halloween choices. Don't be scared, but we are doubling down this Saturday. If we fail, remember us on All-Saints Day.

Let's put 1,000 supplications each on:

Stanford -7 1/2 over USC (The Trees are perfect against the spread so far)

Northwestern -9 over Indiana (Hapless Hoosiers will be "Persa"cuted by Purple pumas)

Fordham +30 over Army (The Rams will recall Lombardi and the seven blocks of granite as the officers-to-be will lose the ball six times in the rain and snow expected on the Hudson)

Navy +21 1/2 over Notre Dame (The PT 73 runs circles around punchless Binghamtons of South Bend)

And 2,000 on our Lock of the Week:
Over/Under
Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt over 51 1/2 (Vandy routed Mississippi and will score 24 against porous pigs; predicted final Arkansas wins 35-24).

One last note, our World Series pick came to fruition. Recall, we went with St. Louis at 15 to 1 before the playoffs, netting 1,500 horsehides and closing our baseball season at plus 3,900.

New Math

Scholar athletes everywhere were not surpised by the first Bowl Championship Series rankings. Drawing on our differential calculus course work, we discern that the winners of LSU/Alabama and Oklahoma/Oklahoma State games down the road will be the representatives in the championship game.

For our cogitations this weekend, we dusted off our slide rule (remember when engineering students wore them dangling from their belts?) and came up with these quadratic equations.

For entertainment purposes only, let's put 500 second derivatives each on:

Spread:
Stanford -20 over Washington (Luck will clean split valves of Stanford band if Huskies get close)
Kansas State -10 1/2 over Kansas (Purple Cats are best-kept secret in Big 12. Jayhawks won't get 5 first downs)
Oregon -31 over Colorado (Aflacs cover easily over endangered bovine breed)

Over/Under:
Arkansas vs. Mississippi, over 56 1/2 (Hogs QB Tyler Wilson is one tough cookie. He won't crumble and will humble Bonnie Blue Flags, who get two defensive TDs)

Lock of the Week (1,000 cube roots):
Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma, over 70 (Red Raiders will score at least three TDs; Sooner Schooner ponies will be run ragged celebrating OU scores).

Last week, our lock bailed us out,cutting our loss to 150 units, bringing the toal this season to plus 1,640.