I gave up cynicism for Lent today but have already broken my vow.
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, is indeed a genius. The guy helped build the behemoth that became Citigroup, then got sacked by Sandy Weill before the comeuppance. Then the guy takes over at Bank One and then JPM and gets Bear Stearns handed to him at the expense of the United States while making a big deal out of not denying telling worker bees they couldn't take a car home if they worked late and kept the driver idling (see Fortune Magazine). What a guy. Oh, and then he rips the dividend to a nominal mount, garroting shareholders , and keeping the TARP dough the company took just to be a good citizen.
Why shouldn't he pay 5% on preferred stock owned by the U.S. when replacing it with private capital would cost who knows how much more? Gotta hand it him, a Teflon CEO on Wall Street.
OK. That's out of my system. What's fascinating to me about the market and everything else is that we must rely on history to forecast the future. What else do we have? Are we "boats against the current borne back ceaselessly into the past"? If so, then today's market will become part of that history and add a piece of data to the regression model. Unless one has inside information or gets lucky, the only way to make money in equities "in the long run," as Professor Siegel at Wharton touts with the diligent back-breaking work of graduate assistants at his beck and call, is to forecast the arc of economic activity.
It really is all about GDP and timing. How about this idea. If you believe GDP will recover in the second half of 2009 then you should be invested. If you don't, then you should not.
Sticking with PALM, F, AMD and AMR. As a hedge, still holding SLV.
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Monday, February 23, 2009
Keynes vs. Hayek
The intellectual ferment is palpable in times like these. Could it be that our fear of chaos persuades us to embrace Keynesian prescriptions instead of the Austrian (or should it be called austere) school of every man for himself?
In other words, the natural reaction to any setback is to try to "do something" rather than let greed, crime and the vagaries of self-interest bring us all down. Alas, there is no cure for the gorge and purge that seems to be the arc of civilization, but one has to try.
Scott Fitzgerald, who borrowed it, I think, from Keats, and I paraphrase, said that the test of a first-class intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in his mind and mantain the ability to function. Now I'm trying to figure which basketball game to bet my 401k on this week. Who will win? The Keynes crowd that says somenthing must be done or the Austrian school that says that we're all alone? As usual, I'm torn.
Taking the Sooners tonight at home, against my rules of not wagering on old OU, but convinced that even without Blake Griffin, the boys in crimson and cream will prevail. Looks bad at half-time, but "our chant rolls on and on." So we'll try again tomorrow.
In other words, the natural reaction to any setback is to try to "do something" rather than let greed, crime and the vagaries of self-interest bring us all down. Alas, there is no cure for the gorge and purge that seems to be the arc of civilization, but one has to try.
Scott Fitzgerald, who borrowed it, I think, from Keats, and I paraphrase, said that the test of a first-class intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in his mind and mantain the ability to function. Now I'm trying to figure which basketball game to bet my 401k on this week. Who will win? The Keynes crowd that says somenthing must be done or the Austrian school that says that we're all alone? As usual, I'm torn.
Taking the Sooners tonight at home, against my rules of not wagering on old OU, but convinced that even without Blake Griffin, the boys in crimson and cream will prevail. Looks bad at half-time, but "our chant rolls on and on." So we'll try again tomorrow.
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Once I built a railroad
The days of buy and hold are yet to come. Get ready for the 1930's bonus armies of the ought 2000's to march soon. I exited C and JPM two trading days ago, taking a loss, but convinced they and other financial names will become wards of the state, wiping out shareholders. As Judge Smails said about sending young men to the gas chamber, "Didn't want to do it, felt that I owed it to them."
Profits these days are like the fabulous angel Moroni appearing to the upstate New Yorker who made his way to Utah believing that Jesus somehow came to these shores from Palestine to live with the Indians. Makes as much sense to me, a man who says a Hail Mary before bed and every golf shot, as anything else.
After all, American car companies have been diligent, in my view, only to be suckered by the globalization cheerleaders and the offshore fellows who have a leg up. Oh well, their central banks buy our debt, so let's not bash those who play with the axe that can wound us all.
No how many Hail Marys I recite, things will will only get worse before they get better, but I'm sticking with F.
JFK said: "I have just received the following wire from my generous daddy: 'Dear Jack -- Don't buy a single vote more than is necessary -- I'll be damned if I'm going to pay for a landslide.' "
Don't pay for a landslide, friends. I have been duly chastened by more than a couple of my own miscalculations. I have made dough in precious metals (SLV) and a few tech names (PALM and S), ans still holding on; and lost in financials (duh! as the kids say) and a sentimental buy (NYT).
Have to get back to the second half of the OU-Texas game. Could life be more unfair still?
Profits these days are like the fabulous angel Moroni appearing to the upstate New Yorker who made his way to Utah believing that Jesus somehow came to these shores from Palestine to live with the Indians. Makes as much sense to me, a man who says a Hail Mary before bed and every golf shot, as anything else.
After all, American car companies have been diligent, in my view, only to be suckered by the globalization cheerleaders and the offshore fellows who have a leg up. Oh well, their central banks buy our debt, so let's not bash those who play with the axe that can wound us all.
No how many Hail Marys I recite, things will will only get worse before they get better, but I'm sticking with F.
JFK said: "I have just received the following wire from my generous daddy: 'Dear Jack -- Don't buy a single vote more than is necessary -- I'll be damned if I'm going to pay for a landslide.' "
Don't pay for a landslide, friends. I have been duly chastened by more than a couple of my own miscalculations. I have made dough in precious metals (SLV) and a few tech names (PALM and S), ans still holding on; and lost in financials (duh! as the kids say) and a sentimental buy (NYT).
Have to get back to the second half of the OU-Texas game. Could life be more unfair still?
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
College Boy
Is Alex Rodriguez the biggest gazillionaire phony who ever walked to the plate? It's times like these that make me wish I had become a lawyer. What litigator out there wouldn't have skewered him on cross-examination?
In a way, I think he's right about being young and stupid, because he is still a boy who wants it both ways. The guy had a chance to knock it out of the park like a beer league softball player, but chose instead to insult the sporting public by insisting that if he had only gone to school instead of accepting a king's ransom to play a little boy's game we all love he might have not let his cousin drill his butt with a drug to give him a "dramatic energy boost."
He didn't think he took this supplement because it makes one's muscles stronger, enabling a man of his tremendous skills to hit more home runs? No. He took it because the cruel world made him miss out on the 7:30 a.m. Shakespeare class that would have turned him around like it did so many of us.
What a baby. Most everyone's life is embarrassing. Well, mine is anyway, and I won't bore you with the details unless you insist and I've had a few cocktails.
I would have respected the guy if he just said: "Yeah I did it, a reporter found out, so sue me. The Yankees still owe me for nine more years, there is no god and you don't have to love me."
But, hey Alex, lucky me has to get some rest before my life-changing botany mid-term in the morning.
In a way, I think he's right about being young and stupid, because he is still a boy who wants it both ways. The guy had a chance to knock it out of the park like a beer league softball player, but chose instead to insult the sporting public by insisting that if he had only gone to school instead of accepting a king's ransom to play a little boy's game we all love he might have not let his cousin drill his butt with a drug to give him a "dramatic energy boost."
He didn't think he took this supplement because it makes one's muscles stronger, enabling a man of his tremendous skills to hit more home runs? No. He took it because the cruel world made him miss out on the 7:30 a.m. Shakespeare class that would have turned him around like it did so many of us.
What a baby. Most everyone's life is embarrassing. Well, mine is anyway, and I won't bore you with the details unless you insist and I've had a few cocktails.
I would have respected the guy if he just said: "Yeah I did it, a reporter found out, so sue me. The Yankees still owe me for nine more years, there is no god and you don't have to love me."
But, hey Alex, lucky me has to get some rest before my life-changing botany mid-term in the morning.
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Short and Sweet
Dear readers,
Miss Market is a pitiless wench. I love her above all until Paula Creamer marks her ball, but that's another rant. I'll always have Paula when everyone else abandons me, as well they should.
My good buddy and I made some dough taking Pitttsburgh on the road against Connecticut the other night, but I squandered it tonight by taking Moo U and the points against Purdue
I give up. I now admit everyone else was right, which now means they are wrong. I have thrown in the towel, which must mean the bottom has arrived.
I will pick up my torch and pitchfork and man the barricades tomorrow only to learn that I'm alone and everyone else is employed and buying and I'm arrested for jaywalking. Oh well, it's just a game.
For the record, I exited C and JPM today, preferring to own them as a taxpayer, not a shareholder who will eventually be wiped out. Geithner and the government will keep them going as long as possible so as not to completely incinerate the credit markets, but the United States will own them, not private shareholders. Yes, even JPM at some point.
Sticking with PALM and AMD.
Yours, Kev
Miss Market is a pitiless wench. I love her above all until Paula Creamer marks her ball, but that's another rant. I'll always have Paula when everyone else abandons me, as well they should.
My good buddy and I made some dough taking Pitttsburgh on the road against Connecticut the other night, but I squandered it tonight by taking Moo U and the points against Purdue
I give up. I now admit everyone else was right, which now means they are wrong. I have thrown in the towel, which must mean the bottom has arrived.
I will pick up my torch and pitchfork and man the barricades tomorrow only to learn that I'm alone and everyone else is employed and buying and I'm arrested for jaywalking. Oh well, it's just a game.
For the record, I exited C and JPM today, preferring to own them as a taxpayer, not a shareholder who will eventually be wiped out. Geithner and the government will keep them going as long as possible so as not to completely incinerate the credit markets, but the United States will own them, not private shareholders. Yes, even JPM at some point.
Sticking with PALM and AMD.
Yours, Kev
Friday, February 13, 2009
General Pickett, where is your division?
As in all our to-ing and fro-ing, the winners get to write history. What if Lee had prevailed at Gettysburg? All the Price/Earnings ratios and adjusted P/Es and adjusted/adjusted P/Es will tell you whatever you want them to tell you. Not that it isn't fun, like debating whether Gatorade and steroids are both performance-enhancing drugs. It makes for great cocktail chatter and a way to get a conversation going.
My own historical analysis is: stock prices attempt to discount the future. If enough investors see inflation-adjusted economic growth they will bid up the price of equity securities until they see evidence they are wrong. Thus, the biggest winners will be those who serendipitously guess the crowd is wrong or right.
So many money managers have been proven wrong that one must doubt the value of granular research. I would rather rely on the outlook for macro trends and look for specific stocks that could benefit from them than the parsing of the P/E de jour.
Prediction: Economic growth, through revived animal spirits via fiscal and monetary stimulus, will resume at some point in the second half of 2009 and equity prices will be higher on Feb. 13, 2010, than they are today. If not, then the survivalists are right and expect committees of correspondence and the Sons of Liberty to see a revival.
Self-interest without an overriding interest in the welfare of clients would tend to hurt the commonweal, but isn't self-interest the overarching inclination of our, or any, species? In other words, self-interest must be overcome by the damage to the whole, and therefore to the self, before the repair to the damage can be applied. We've reached it now, in my view. Self-interest means saving the whole, even sluggards like me who wonder why the world doesn't support a poor man who only asks for drink, tobacco, golf clubs, tennis racket and gambling venue in return for his gracing this vale of tears.
To blame Wall Street is acceptable but not sufficient. Used car salesmen will always be with us. It is a condition of life, not a symptom of something gone off the tracks, in my view. Just a swinging of the pendulum.
For example, I can't stand the vile lyrics booming from the stereos of cars of young people. Is it a sign of the apocalypse? Yeah, I think so, and would advocate shotguns being fired into their engine blocks. But a lot of people don't, and I guess the republic will survive this plague.
Growth is in the pipeline and will wash over the individual broker's incentive. Stocks tied to the macro trends will rise. I'm thinking oil, technology. In my view these trends are reinflation through fiscal and monetary stimulus. Now, inflation will be something to contemplate down the road.
The she-wolf called Miss Market spanked me again today, largely because of an investment in an illiquid banking stock, BANF. Those who want to take profits in PALM and AMD will be forgiven, but I'm hanging on. The latter rose, the former retreated today.
The possibility of nationalization of big banks is real. I am an owner of C and JPM, waiting for an exit. Those with cojones might want to take a flier on these guys, but I'm not increasing positions.
Also, my MSFT has done well. S is in the black. GE and NYT have disappointed. But the ex-dividend dates for both are coming up next week, so I'm hanging on at least until then.
SLV has been a winner so far, as has AMR, which I am hedging with DXO (more about the nexus between airlines, oil and economic growth to come).
Happy Presidents' Day (is the apostrophe in the right place?). Though the holiday is meant to commemorate the births of Washington and Lincoln, my hero, as befits a baby boomer, remains JFK. His explanation for going to the moon keeps me dashing to the golf course and the tennis court. "Why does Rice play Texas?"
My own historical analysis is: stock prices attempt to discount the future. If enough investors see inflation-adjusted economic growth they will bid up the price of equity securities until they see evidence they are wrong. Thus, the biggest winners will be those who serendipitously guess the crowd is wrong or right.
So many money managers have been proven wrong that one must doubt the value of granular research. I would rather rely on the outlook for macro trends and look for specific stocks that could benefit from them than the parsing of the P/E de jour.
Prediction: Economic growth, through revived animal spirits via fiscal and monetary stimulus, will resume at some point in the second half of 2009 and equity prices will be higher on Feb. 13, 2010, than they are today. If not, then the survivalists are right and expect committees of correspondence and the Sons of Liberty to see a revival.
Self-interest without an overriding interest in the welfare of clients would tend to hurt the commonweal, but isn't self-interest the overarching inclination of our, or any, species? In other words, self-interest must be overcome by the damage to the whole, and therefore to the self, before the repair to the damage can be applied. We've reached it now, in my view. Self-interest means saving the whole, even sluggards like me who wonder why the world doesn't support a poor man who only asks for drink, tobacco, golf clubs, tennis racket and gambling venue in return for his gracing this vale of tears.
To blame Wall Street is acceptable but not sufficient. Used car salesmen will always be with us. It is a condition of life, not a symptom of something gone off the tracks, in my view. Just a swinging of the pendulum.
For example, I can't stand the vile lyrics booming from the stereos of cars of young people. Is it a sign of the apocalypse? Yeah, I think so, and would advocate shotguns being fired into their engine blocks. But a lot of people don't, and I guess the republic will survive this plague.
Growth is in the pipeline and will wash over the individual broker's incentive. Stocks tied to the macro trends will rise. I'm thinking oil, technology. In my view these trends are reinflation through fiscal and monetary stimulus. Now, inflation will be something to contemplate down the road.
The she-wolf called Miss Market spanked me again today, largely because of an investment in an illiquid banking stock, BANF. Those who want to take profits in PALM and AMD will be forgiven, but I'm hanging on. The latter rose, the former retreated today.
The possibility of nationalization of big banks is real. I am an owner of C and JPM, waiting for an exit. Those with cojones might want to take a flier on these guys, but I'm not increasing positions.
Also, my MSFT has done well. S is in the black. GE and NYT have disappointed. But the ex-dividend dates for both are coming up next week, so I'm hanging on at least until then.
SLV has been a winner so far, as has AMR, which I am hedging with DXO (more about the nexus between airlines, oil and economic growth to come).
Happy Presidents' Day (is the apostrophe in the right place?). Though the holiday is meant to commemorate the births of Washington and Lincoln, my hero, as befits a baby boomer, remains JFK. His explanation for going to the moon keeps me dashing to the golf course and the tennis court. "Why does Rice play Texas?"
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
The She-Wolf of the SS
Remember those pulp men's magazines that your father occasionally stuffed in his brief case? I'm so old you probably don't. In any event, one of the staples of these rags was the Nazi-clad gal with a whip about to lash a stubble-faced GI fallen into enemy hands.
Miss Market should be the cover girl. Wow, did she ever administer a beating after wonder boy Tim Geithner told us all we're bound to fail but let's do it anyway. What an advocate for recovery!
Would you play roulette if you were forced to bet black but the ball was always directed to red? If you were at such a table you would sell your spot to some other gullible player. Would you buy stock in a company that you knew would never pay a dividend or be acquired at a premium?
The value decision in equities comes down to believing that an enterprise will generate cash and at some point return that cash to shareowners -- either you or the person to whom you sell the stock. Any fluctuation in equities is based on this shadow supposition between buyer and seller.
In other words, the value investor believes that cash will in the end trump the psychology of crowds. The trader, though, lives by the greater fool theory. He will sell his spot at the rigged roulette table to someone who believes cash is at the ready to be dispensed. Either could be right.
The croupier at the roulette table of Rick's Cafe Americain was savvier after he got the word from Bogart to let the poor guy on the run win. But our tax-dodging employee at the head of the Treasury gaming table more or less rolled his eyes and told the world that it's all hopeless. He should be a back-office wonk, not a spokesman for Apocalypse Now.
Somebody needs to stick a cigarette holder in the teeth of these "men" and tell them to do a few pushups, mix a martini, start whistling at girls and stop acting like we're all doomed. Maybe steroids would help.
By the way, the only thing I own that was up today was SLV, a silver ETN. I got back into AMR at the close at $5.16. Good luck.
Miss Market should be the cover girl. Wow, did she ever administer a beating after wonder boy Tim Geithner told us all we're bound to fail but let's do it anyway. What an advocate for recovery!
Would you play roulette if you were forced to bet black but the ball was always directed to red? If you were at such a table you would sell your spot to some other gullible player. Would you buy stock in a company that you knew would never pay a dividend or be acquired at a premium?
The value decision in equities comes down to believing that an enterprise will generate cash and at some point return that cash to shareowners -- either you or the person to whom you sell the stock. Any fluctuation in equities is based on this shadow supposition between buyer and seller.
In other words, the value investor believes that cash will in the end trump the psychology of crowds. The trader, though, lives by the greater fool theory. He will sell his spot at the rigged roulette table to someone who believes cash is at the ready to be dispensed. Either could be right.
The croupier at the roulette table of Rick's Cafe Americain was savvier after he got the word from Bogart to let the poor guy on the run win. But our tax-dodging employee at the head of the Treasury gaming table more or less rolled his eyes and told the world that it's all hopeless. He should be a back-office wonk, not a spokesman for Apocalypse Now.
Somebody needs to stick a cigarette holder in the teeth of these "men" and tell them to do a few pushups, mix a martini, start whistling at girls and stop acting like we're all doomed. Maybe steroids would help.
By the way, the only thing I own that was up today was SLV, a silver ETN. I got back into AMR at the close at $5.16. Good luck.
Monday, February 9, 2009
Torre Told Us
You know what? And I'm sure you couldn't care less, but A-Rod is too precious. He admits the steroid use, but says it was too hot in the summer and felt "the weight of the world" so he had to take the steroids. We all have excuses (I've got my own. I blame the sun, too, as well as my 57-year-old deltoids, the crummy lie behind a tree after an otherwise manly drive, etc.)
For all his amazing talents, Rodriguez is breathtakingly silly. Maybe it's just me, but I would have told everybody to go to hell. Yeah, I took 'em. Sue me. The stuff works.
Nevertheless, spare me that the rules of major league baseball did not ban them. The MLB does not trump the laws of the United States. It is illegal to to ingest these drugs without a prescription. My 79-year-old mother proclaimed steroids a wonder drug after a doctor prescribed them for her injured hip. She hit no home runs last year, but was able to walk around New York when she came to visit.
Of course, Rodriguez took them. They work. Why does he have to pretend to fools like me who are sports fans that it matters. So what? Hey, if the right guard for the Buffalo Bills, whoever he is, made a key block to spring a running back for a touchdown and somebody told us he was a bit too muscular because of steroids, I'm sure the fans upstate would proclaim "there is no gambling at Bushwood, sir." Right.
The right guard and Bills fans would laugh.
Joe Torre's book is right. The guy's a bit consumed with himself. I'm thrilled, though, that he wants to help kids.
For all his amazing talents, Rodriguez is breathtakingly silly. Maybe it's just me, but I would have told everybody to go to hell. Yeah, I took 'em. Sue me. The stuff works.
Nevertheless, spare me that the rules of major league baseball did not ban them. The MLB does not trump the laws of the United States. It is illegal to to ingest these drugs without a prescription. My 79-year-old mother proclaimed steroids a wonder drug after a doctor prescribed them for her injured hip. She hit no home runs last year, but was able to walk around New York when she came to visit.
Of course, Rodriguez took them. They work. Why does he have to pretend to fools like me who are sports fans that it matters. So what? Hey, if the right guard for the Buffalo Bills, whoever he is, made a key block to spring a running back for a touchdown and somebody told us he was a bit too muscular because of steroids, I'm sure the fans upstate would proclaim "there is no gambling at Bushwood, sir." Right.
The right guard and Bills fans would laugh.
Joe Torre's book is right. The guy's a bit consumed with himself. I'm thrilled, though, that he wants to help kids.
Saturday, February 7, 2009
Pump Me Up
All the outrage about A-Rod allegedly taking steroids (as reported by SI) misses a larger point. How about all the little boys who died of pneumonia before penicillin? It could be argued that recovery from pneumonia with the benefit of antibiotics would be an unfair advantage against the ballplayer who managed to survive without the benefit of modern science.
Steroids and HGH and whatever a chemist comes up with next year should be available to anyone who wants to take the risk. Should someone not take Tylenol for a headache?
Please, baseball is too precious about this. Does football care that behemoths on their lines take substances that increase their strength and girth? Of course not. It should be up to them. If you don't want to do it, it's a free country. Find another line of work.
Just put a bunch of asterisks in the almanacs and get on with it. The world changes exponentially. If a pitcher adds a few mphs and a hitter doesn't increase his bat speed by the same amount, then it's unfair.
But life is unfair, and to dwell in a dream past is to live without penicillin. I guess we must, though. To do otherwise would incinerate the myth that we used to walk five miles in the snow to school. I did this once and nearly froze to death before a friendly motorist picked me up.
A-Rod and baseball, give it up.
Miss Market will make a repeat performance soon.
Steroids and HGH and whatever a chemist comes up with next year should be available to anyone who wants to take the risk. Should someone not take Tylenol for a headache?
Please, baseball is too precious about this. Does football care that behemoths on their lines take substances that increase their strength and girth? Of course not. It should be up to them. If you don't want to do it, it's a free country. Find another line of work.
Just put a bunch of asterisks in the almanacs and get on with it. The world changes exponentially. If a pitcher adds a few mphs and a hitter doesn't increase his bat speed by the same amount, then it's unfair.
But life is unfair, and to dwell in a dream past is to live without penicillin. I guess we must, though. To do otherwise would incinerate the myth that we used to walk five miles in the snow to school. I did this once and nearly froze to death before a friendly motorist picked me up.
A-Rod and baseball, give it up.
Miss Market will make a repeat performance soon.
Monday, February 2, 2009
The Grassy Knoll
As Ricky Ricardo would say, "NFL, you got some 'splainin' to do."
Watching the game with my daughter, who was pulling for the Steelers just to rile me, I was indifferent to whether Pittsburgh scored or if Arizona miraculously came back in the last 35 seconds. I was just hoping Warner didn't throw a pick six in the waning moments and deep six my bet on the Cardinals and the points.
But the last play wasn't even reviewed by the referee. Apparently, the replay official in the booth said there was no need to. Was it a fumble or a forward pass? Surely there was enough evidence to take the time to look at it. I remarked, wait they're going to have to look at this a while. The next time I looked up from my nachos, Roethlisberger was taking a knee and the game was over.
The poor Cardinals had no dog in this hunt. Can you imagine the back pages if it had happened to the Giants or Jets?
Or consider this. Can you imagine the outcry from gamblers if the Cardinals were down by seven (the spread was seven or six and a half, depending on who you bet with) and they didn't get a second shot with a jump ball in the end zone with Larry Fitzgerald?
Now it may very well have been a fumble, but it appeared to me the doubt was such that even Arizona's linemen weren't scampering after the loose ball.
There has to be another explanation. Somebody in the booth had one too many at the ESPN party or didn't want to delay the post-game love fest. Less controversial plays are the subject of eight-minute looks by the replay guys in a game between nondescript losers in the middle of the season.
No, the NFL flubbed it and won't admit it.
Nevertheless, I must crow (Hah!). Warner's passing yardage fell within 102 yards of my prediction. Fitzgerald did score two touchdowns. The 14-point swing with the thug Harrison's 100-yard interception return skewered my score prediction. A prescient friend warned that a turnover touchdown would tip the scales. And, alas, Roethlisberger did flummox me with his continued expanding pocket saves. And was Santonio Holmes' right foot on top of his left and not on the ground? It's always something.
Watching the game with my daughter, who was pulling for the Steelers just to rile me, I was indifferent to whether Pittsburgh scored or if Arizona miraculously came back in the last 35 seconds. I was just hoping Warner didn't throw a pick six in the waning moments and deep six my bet on the Cardinals and the points.
But the last play wasn't even reviewed by the referee. Apparently, the replay official in the booth said there was no need to. Was it a fumble or a forward pass? Surely there was enough evidence to take the time to look at it. I remarked, wait they're going to have to look at this a while. The next time I looked up from my nachos, Roethlisberger was taking a knee and the game was over.
The poor Cardinals had no dog in this hunt. Can you imagine the back pages if it had happened to the Giants or Jets?
Or consider this. Can you imagine the outcry from gamblers if the Cardinals were down by seven (the spread was seven or six and a half, depending on who you bet with) and they didn't get a second shot with a jump ball in the end zone with Larry Fitzgerald?
Now it may very well have been a fumble, but it appeared to me the doubt was such that even Arizona's linemen weren't scampering after the loose ball.
There has to be another explanation. Somebody in the booth had one too many at the ESPN party or didn't want to delay the post-game love fest. Less controversial plays are the subject of eight-minute looks by the replay guys in a game between nondescript losers in the middle of the season.
No, the NFL flubbed it and won't admit it.
Nevertheless, I must crow (Hah!). Warner's passing yardage fell within 102 yards of my prediction. Fitzgerald did score two touchdowns. The 14-point swing with the thug Harrison's 100-yard interception return skewered my score prediction. A prescient friend warned that a turnover touchdown would tip the scales. And, alas, Roethlisberger did flummox me with his continued expanding pocket saves. And was Santonio Holmes' right foot on top of his left and not on the ground? It's always something.
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