Saturday, January 31, 2009

Veni, Vidi, Vici

Defense wins championships, right? Nonsense. Quick counts (and please, Arizona, mix in the no-huddle offense) will prevail tomorrow in Super Bowl XLIII and counter Pittsburgh's stealthy pash rushing schemes.

Edgerrin James will average IV yards a carry; this is the key to keeping Troy Polamolu and Ryan Clark honest. Kurt Warner will throw for CCLXXV yards and IV touchdowns. Larry Fitzgerald will catch II of them.

The Cardinals will steal a possession with a turnover and turn it into points. Ben Roethlisberger has been too lucky with the "extended pocket" miracle heaves that got cheap scores in the Steelers' playoff run. They won't happen Sunday. Cardinals will win outright XXXV-XXIV and put to rest the dominant defense myth.

Take Arizona and the points (VII last time I looked, but VI 1/2 on other venues) and the over (XLVII).

Happy Roman numeral day!

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

It Springs Eternal

Hope is the thing with feathers. Emily Dickinson probably never thought that the bird trilling in her soul and never asking "a crumb" in return was singing about Miss Market or the Super Bowl.

The Republicans, apparently denying that feathers mean anything, are disingenuous churls. Where were John Boehner and his fellows when they cut taxes and increased spending as the economy was growing. When the Fed should have recognized a bubble and contained it, policy makers allowed the balloon to expand until it burst upon us. Can leaning against the wind be that hard?

In this great recession, dough must be thrown willy-nilly. Of course there will be waste, pork, corruption. The retail industry calls it shrinkage. It accepts the fact that shoplifting, damaged goods and employee theft will take a toll on margins. But it doesn't stop Target, The Gap, Key Food or the local sneaker store from forging ahead.

I imagine Dickinson's bird (a common sparrow, I think) in the throat of sultry Miss Market (Julie London singing "Fly me to the Moon"). Those inclined to take profits on the meteoric rise of PALM will be forgiven. I'm hanging on, though. The new phone will compete vigorously against RIMM's Blackberry, and the comeback from today's lows was impressive. Stalwarts GE and MSFT have done all right. My flyer with NYT is even. Oil took a tumble today, but I'm still hanging in with DXO.

As for the upcoming football game, I'm inclined to think the Cardinals will cover the seven-point spread if Edgerrin James can average five yards a carry. Otherwise, the Steelers' intricate pass rushing schemes could derail the Kurt Warner story. Nevertheless, that thing with feathers flutters.

But all this is about the short term, which I define as the time I'm alive. In the long run, my optimism is diminished.

Arnold Toynbee's magisterial "A Study of History" covered the inevitable decline of all civilizations more than 60 years ago. Henry Adams and Brooks Adams sought a scientific explanation for history 100 years ago. Spengler did it, too, in a more impenetrable way (I defy anyone to explain "The Decline of the West" to me).

These historians were not crazies. The sky has always been falling. Great civilizations totter from within. Rising powers just push them over, only to be felled themselves when the time has come.

For my part, I'll take the medieval world of faith and mystery with indoor plumbing, a vaccine against bubonic plague and mid-60s British invasion bands. Guess I'm caught in a time warp.

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Admit that the waters around you have grown...

Ouch. Miss Market cares not a whit that Barrack H. Obama is now the 44th president of the United States on January 20, 2009. She answers to a higher mother: Ms. DO RE MI. But because I know she is secretly smitten with me, I'm confident our embrace awaits.

And I can't help but believe that she is relieved that the little boy playing dress-up in a jet pilot's outfit spouting heckuva job Brownie, bring 'em on and I answer to a higher father has been dispatched to his room to play with the Legos that mean only something to him, not the world where fleshly men and women work, play and fight.

Echoing St. Paul, President Obama noted today that "the time has come to set aside childish things." Adults are in charge again.

Chief Justice Roberts, purposefully or not, mangled the oath of office, and the President-about-to-be gracefully smiled and quizzically looked at him, giving Roberts the benefit of the doubt. Good form, old sport.

But on to more meaningful prose.

"What the cynics fail to understand is that the ground has shifted beneath them"

I heard Bob Dylan singing, Come senators, congressmen, Please heed the call, Don't stand in the doorway, Don't block up the hall, For he that gets hurt, Will be he who has stalled.

Obama: "Nor is the question before us whether the market is a force for good or ill. Its power to generate wealth and expand freedom is unmatched, but this crisis has reminded us that without a watchful eye, the market can spin out of control -- and that a nation cannot prosper long when it favors only the prosperous."

Well, here's hoping the prosperous will include you and me in the days, months and years to come.

However, to achieve this, Obama must be a stern steward to gain the confidence of the conservative doubters. In this regard, he should throw Treasury secretary-designate Tim Geithner overboard, a twit in a suit who cheated on his taxes, though I doubt at this stage Obama can do it since he knew it before. This appointment could wound him severely if the economy and market keep spiraling downward.

Miss Market is cruel and merciless, but she enchants us nevertheless. Updates on Kev's battered portfolio after its rebound tomorrow (fingers crossed; the rent depends on it!)

Monday, January 19, 2009

Keep them doggies movin'...

To gamble is to lead a self-examined life, which is good, the philosophers say. Jesus himself tells us "And why beholdest thou the mote that is in thy brother's eye, but perceivest not the beam that is in thine own eye?"

The beam in my case was taking underdog Baltimore and six points against Pittsburgh yesterday. The first two games in the regular season gave me confidence the Ravens could cover, and I was looking pretty smart well into the fourth quarter with Baltimore trailing by two and driving. I was also counting on Troy Polamalo at less than top speed. This 'possum, though, sprang like a gazelle to snare Joe Flacco's pass and zig-zag to the endzone, putting old Kev nine points down.

Still one more chance until Ryan Clark clocked Willie McGahee over the middle. Helmet met helmet and McGahee was out, the ball fumbled to the Steelers. Whether it was a good football play or not, I've come to the conclusion that referees choose to ignore the rules all the time. Spearing is prohibited. The rules don't account for looking into men's souls to determine intent. Oh well, as we all know, holding occurs on virtually every play, too. No use complaining. Good vittles, love and kissin' are waitin' at the end of my ride.

The first dog barked much better for me. Arizona, continued its Cinderella run and won outright on the shoulders of Kurt Warner and the uber-receiver Larry Fitzgerald (his father was a sportswriter, I understand. We scribes must have athletic genes after all).

So, I chased my tail, ending up in the same spot, which is reward enough for making a sporting event interesting if you don't have a rooting interest as a fan. I refuse to wager on OU games. My passion is more than stoked without begging for an extra touchdown or two to cover.

The early Super Bowl line makes Pittsburgh a 7-point favorite. In the two weeks to come, I will strive to ignore the mote in my brother's eye and remove the beam in my own, as I will in my golf game this year. I think it's my putter stuck solidly in the window to my soul.

Thursday, January 15, 2009

Good night and good luck

Thoughts on George W. Bush's farewell address.

The poor son of a gun. He dodges the draft, fails at every venture and is bailed out each time by his father's buddies, "loses" an election but is sworn in anyway (I know, the electoral college is the law and the Supreme Court put an end to the chad counting, etc. I'm over it), sends thousands to their death in a needless war when the U.S. had Saddam in a box.

He's right, though, that things would have been worse without the efforts of government to ameliorate the economic pain, as unfair as it may be to rescue finance and car makers and ignore other industries. That was a tough decision.

But I just wish he would have shown more reliance on thinking about what was clearly before him and not the Cheneys, et al., who machinated behind the scenes.

I hesitate to say this, but he just wasn't too bright. Obama may not be either but best of luck to him.

"How many thousand of my poorest subjects Are at this hour asleep! O sleep, O gentle sleep, Nature's soft nurse...

"Uneasy lies the head that wears a crown."

Monday, January 12, 2009

As Christopher Robin said, "Silly Bear"

Is the end near? Well, nearer than it was yesterday, I guess. But in the meantime I think buying opportunities abound. You don't need a neurosurgeon to rewire your synapses to know that buying low and selling high is the prudent thing to do. For starters, look at tech.

If you think the bear market has returned, you are missing the chance to buy on the dips. This is not to say that long-term structural problems won't remain, but does anyone seriously believe that the executive, congressional and monetary authorities of the United States will accept anything but reflation in the second half of 2009? It is the only standard by which they will be judged and they know it.

By hook or crook (no pun intended), employment, interest rates, confidence, the price of shaving cream, gasoline, a shoe shine, a shot and a beer, and stock prices, are poised to rise.

Yes, the news is bad, but shouldn't the investor see a sweet spot? Those who would object, and I admit they have a legitimate argument, should still hold their noses with their eyes wide open and buy. They can complain later as Ted Williams did when he swatted a home run and disdained the congratulations of his teammates with the remark that he shouldn't have swung because the pitch was outside the strike zone.

Gratuitous aside: I'm not a big NBA fan, but how can you not love the Knickerbockers' David Lee. Great player (what a game against New Orleans tonight!), winning personality, but apparently he's trade bait, according to those with deeper knowledge of basketball economics.

And OU did beat Texas -- in basketball tonight. Power forward Blake Griffin had a double-double as the sportswriters say.

Update on Kev's portfolio:

Ford (F) Sold at $2.15 on 12/24/08, gain of 46.5% booked from purchase at $1.15 on 11/20/08. Last price $2.64.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), bought at $2.19 on 12/15/08, up 15.07% at $2.52 on 1/12/09.

Palm Inc. (PALM), bought at $2.04 on 12/15/08, up 189.7% at $5.91 on 1/12/09.

Developers Diversified Realty (DDR), bought at $4.86 on 12/31/08, up 23.87% at $6.02 on 1/12/09.

PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Long ETN (DXO), bought at $2.24 on 12/29/08, up 25.89% at $2.82 on 1/12/09.

BancFirst (BANF), bought at $50.41 on 1/08/09, down 14.3% at $43.20 on 1/12/09.

Sunday, January 11, 2009

God, Man and the Beatles at Old OU

I awoke Friday a confirmed atheist.

How could an all-powerful Odin, Zeus or Abrahamic God the Father allow a guy with Bible citations on his eye-black tape to beat the noble Sam Bradford, obvious offspring of whichever immortals bend men to their will? Maybe I was a mixed-up kid who couldn't hang his hat on one supernatural being. But my faith in Him (be He in Heaven, Asgard or atop Mount Olympus) returned as I reconsidered the BCS championship game. OU had its chances and could have easily won. In the end, I believe God was telling the crimson and cream: "Hey, you have to work with Me here, people."

My only consolation is that Tim Tebow, the darling of hagiographers masquerading as broadcasters and sportswriters, received, yes, an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty for taunting. Talk about cognitive dissonance.

Which brings me to the existential dilemma posed by the Beatles, who ingeniously described a lover as a day tripper and elsewhere insisted that she had a ticket to ride. I can see Miss Market in the former, leading us on only to dash our hopes in 2008. This year, though, she's the one giving us a ticket to ride. The girl that's driving me mad is not going away.

Pullbacks are consolidation phases, not the renewal of a bear market. Buy on the dips will turn out to be the theme for 2009. Resistance to this outcome will more and more be confined to cults who insist the end is near only to be left shivering on the mountaintop waiting yet another day for the rapture that will save the elect, who seem to practically salivate at the prospect of bread lines and ruined investors.

The facts are: government stimulus and tax cuts are all but assured; monetary policy has reflation as its only goal; interest rates are low, though destined to rise as the facts sink in; oil prices are still low, but also sure to keep rising as the rebooting of the world economy continues apace.

This broad brush outlook is necessary, but not sufficient. Sector allocation and special situation analysis can beat the index, not only relatively but absolutely.

Buys are oil, other commodities, innovative tech names(e.g., PALM) semiconductors (AMD), and some REITs (DDR). Sells are Treasuries (rising interest rates) and financials (re-regulation and public distaste), excepting the regional institution or two with a focused lending policy and trusted management (BANF). Please check out previous posts for starting prices of these securities (except BANF, whose start price and date will be added to the list tomorrow--I'm down in this name) in Kev's portfolio. Updated performance statistics to come at the end of trading Monday.

For those who trust in omens from the sporting life, three of the four NFL underdogs won outright this weekend. The fourth lost outright and against the spread. Alas, I took all four underdogs. You can look it up. Seventy-five percent isn't bad. Not that I'm into cults or religion or anything.

Monday, January 5, 2009

It's a Festivus Miracle

What an exquisite chess game the Fiesta Bowl proved to be. Texas 24, Ohio State 21.

First, Ohio State using Beanie Wells so effectively until he left the game with a concussion. If he could have stayed in, OSU would have won, I think.

Then Texas putting the Buckeyes on their heels with the Big 12 no-huddle offense for which a Big 10 defense, used to climbing up slowly after three yards and a cloud of dust, is ill prepared.

Then Ohio State using Todd Boeckman at quarterback throwing to fellow quarterback Tyrelle Pryor for a touchdown. What a twist on the wildcat! But with Pryor taking the snap, Jim Tressel has to start considering the triple option to really expand his offensive game.

The offense wins games these days. Defenses, given the rules, must rely on athletes, not deep thinking, no matter what Longhorn defensive coordinator Will Muschamp thinks of himself. I don't fault Ohio State for putting everyone in the box on Texas' winning play.

My only quibble with Ohio State was scoring too quickly late in the fourth quarter with McCoy lurking slack-jawed on the sidelines. Herron, the OSU halfback who replaced Wells, should have fallen down at the one, and Ohio State should have leisurely taken its time pushing into the end zone, but who among us thinks of that when all one sees is green grass ahead?

And, of course, the Texas QB. Over 400 yards passing and unflappable. My heavens, the man has it all, except the Heisman. I'd give it to him or Quan Crosby, who scored the winning TD on a dart from the real McCoy (couldn't resist the obvious adjective).

Great game, but now I must sing because I dread the beating Florida will give the Sooners in Miami, thus giving the evil empire ensconced in brutal Sparta (also known as Austin) its right to stand over shining Athens (aka Norman):

"Don't send my boy to Texas, the dying mother said. Don't send my boy to Texas, I'd rather see him dead..."

And whether OU wins or loses Thursday in the BCS championship game, the one or two mourners at my burial plot, or the lone drunken Irish priest if there should be no one else there, should intone:

"O-K-L-A-H-O-M-A
Our chant rolls on and on.
Thousands strong, join heart and song
In alma mater's praise.
Of campus beautiful by day and night.
Of colors proudly gleaming red and white.
'Neath a Western sky
OU's chant will never die
Live on University."

OK, I'm done. It's been a great bowl season. Just hope the BCS championship game is uninteresting. I like 66-0 games. In any event, I'm voting for Utah as the national champ.

Sunday, January 4, 2009

The Hound Hotel

Well, so much for taking the home dogs today. Both home teams won yesterday, and one of them, San Diego, was a dog, even though Peyton Manning didn't get a chance to touch the ball in overtime because of the NFL's ludicrous sudden death rule.

So I figured why not take the home teams on Sunday. As the PhDs on Wall Street say, don't fight the tape. Who would have thought Chad Pennington, on a team that had only 13 turnovers all season, would throw four interceptions. The Dolphins would have been better off going to the wildcat on every play. As for Minnesota, not giving Adrian Peterson the ball at least 40 times a game is the heighth of stupidity.

Obviously, I'm smarter than any NFL coach. If Woody Johnson or some other owner would pay just a hundredth of what will be dished out to the next head man, I could guarantee a Super Bowl. In my first speech to the squad I would demand a daily regimen of steroid smoothies and holding on every snap. Any lineman caught on tape not holding would be traded to a rugby team.

Next weekend, I'm still in the doghouse. The Eagles (+4.5 right now) will cover against the home Giants (Westbrook will find many ways to score), as will the Chargers (+6) against the home Steelers (Sproles and the punter will be co-MVPs), the Ravens (+3) against the home Titans (Flacco is too cool for school) and the Cardinals (+10) against the home Panthers (I can't help it, I love Kurt Warner). OK, it's drawing to a straight flush, but that beats four aces.

I've got to get three out of four to make a profit. The visitors won Sunday didn't they? Don't fight the tape.

Saturday, January 3, 2009

The Sweater Season

Miss Market has been much nicer to me than the USC sweater girls. For the male middle-aged college football fan fast approaching his dotage there is no greater joy than the TV shots of the Trojan gals' cheering. Fight on for USC! Thank you, ladies, for keeping me young in my own mind.

But I just wish you would have let Penn State score another touchdown to protect my investment in the Nittany Lions. Alas, you all prefer, as well you should, Mark Sanchez to the water boy. I should have taken the "over" bet instead of the spread as I was sagely advised by my all-knowing bartender but rejected.

More bowl fun to come, though. Now the BCS is exposed as the fraud it is. I'm a loyal son of old OU and wish in my innermost heart that the Sooners score another 60 points against Florida, but after last night's Sugar Bowl outcome, Utah (13-0), convincing victor over Alabama, should be proclaimed the national champion. Either have a playoff, or let the votes of the wire service polls decide who is the best. If it's the latter, I'd vote for Utah.

Keeping with the football theme into which the Southern Cal gals have roped me this week, I watched "Leatherheads" on pay per view after the game. My crush on Renee Zellweger is deeper than ever, though I may have to drop her for Paula Creamer when the LPGA reboots.

But then a sweater girl or two could change my mind.

Thursday, January 1, 2009

I'll take my bonus in okra

Bankers rank right up there with politicians, lawyers, journalists, serial killers and know-it-all bloggers (like me) as a species to be reviled. But, like it or not, they are essential to the maintenance of commerce.

Vikram Pandit and his carefully coiffed, sleekly suited and over perfumed brothers and sisters in the paneled walls of finance at Citigroup realize who butters their bread (the United States) and have manfully refused bonuses for 2008. What a blow for egalitarianism. They could take bonuses only at the risk, nay, certainty, of opprobrium at the hands of shareowners (again, the United States).

But to retain talent, as oxymoronic as that may sound in view of the train wreck that C, MS, GS, LEH, JPM and BSC are part and parcel of, requires some dough to be passed around. Fair? No. But life is unfair and if you want the bank to open for business in the morning and not lose your dough ya gotta pay up.

It's a free country, so you don't have to like it, and I'm sure you won't. Be comforted, though, that the bonus-less Mr. Pandit and his ilk will not miss any meals or be forced to ride the subway to whatever they call work these days, which I suspect is buying Treasury paper at zero percent interest with TARP funds and laughing at the guy or gal who wants to buy a house or start a business. Nice work if you can get it.

Whoa! Now I'm riled up. Can't wait for the bowl games to begin.

I expect Penn State to give USC a battle today, but then I expected the ACC's Georgia Tech to beat the SEC's LSU last night and woke up this morning to find the bayou tigers had romped over the ramblin' wrecks 38-3. I guess Les Miles had too much time to prepare for Paul Johnson's potent option offense.

This does not bode well for loyal sons and daughters of old OU against SEC opponent Florida in a week. I think Sam Bradford and the valiant Sooners will have to score on every possession to have a chance against Tim Tebow and his direct line to God.

Remember to eat salt pork and black-eyed peas today for good luck. It's a southern, hillbilly thing. I'm also fixing fried okra (rolled generously in corn meal). Y'all will be assured of a great 2009.